Odds overview
AC Milan are clear favourites: the home win is available at 1.27, while the draw is 5.70 and the away win is 11.50. In the totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.20. In the handicap markets, AC Milan (-1.5) at 1.78 is shorter than US Lecce (+1.5) at 2.03; on the 0 line, AC Milan (0) is 1.05 compared with 7.20 for US Lecce (0).
Why AC Milan are favourites
Bookmakers favour AC Milan: the home win is offered at 1.27, the draw is 5.70 and a US Lecce win is available at 11.50.
- US Lecce have systemic defensive problems: their opponents average 2.34 xG per game — the second-worst figure in Serie A.
- The league table reflects the gap in quality between the teams: after four rounds, US Lecce are 12th with six points and a negative goals-for-and-against balance (5:7).
Form and Line-up AC Milan
At home, AC Milan maintain disciplined play. In 9 of their last 10 Serie A home matches, the hosts committed no more than 12 fouls and took a maximum of five corners.
- In 8 of their last 10 Serie A away matches, AC Milan's opponents scored no more than one goal.
- In 8 of AC Milan's last 10 Serie A matches, there have been four or more yellow cards.
- In 8 of 10 Serie A home matches, AC Milan's opponents had fewer than 12.5 shots, including blocked attempts.
Probable line-up: Mike Maignan, Fikayo Tomori, Strahinja Pavlović, Matteo Gabbia, Adrien Rabiot, Youssouf Fofana, Davide Bartesaghi, Ardon Jashari, Alexis Saelemaekers, Santiago Giménez, Christopher Nkunku.
Form and Line-up US Lecce
In the current Serie A campaign, US Lecce have produced inconsistent away results: a clean-sheet win over Venezia (2:0) was followed by a defeat to Cagliari Calcio (0:1). However, in the last round the team showed they could maintain a high tempo by beating Monza 3:2 at home.
Away from home, the visitors rely on a physical, combative approach but regularly concede more chances than their opponents. In 9 of their last 10 away league matches, US Lecce committed at least 12 fouls and had fewer than 12.5 shots per game.
- No more than three goals were scored in 8 of US Lecce's last 10 Serie A away matches.
- In 9 of US Lecce's last 10 Serie A matches, they took no more than 5 corners.
- There have been 3 or more offsides in US Lecce's last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable line-up: Wladimiro Falcone, Jamil Siebert, Danilo Veiga, Antonino Gallo, Tiago Gabriel, Lameck Banda, Ylber Ramadani, Lassana Coulibaly, Oumar Ngom, Santiago Pierotti, Walid Cheddira.
Omri Gandelman and Medon Berisha will miss the match. Willem Geubbels remains a doubt.
Team chances
An AC Milan win is available at 1.27; the fair odds are 1.33, with a 75% probability. The draw is 5.70, with fair odds of 5.98 and a probability of 16.7%, while a US Lecce win is 11.50, 12.07 and 8.3% respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan to win | 1.27 | 1.33 | 75.0% |
| Draw | 5.70 | 5.98 | 16.7% |
| US Lecce to win | 11.50 | 12.07 | 8.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is shorter than Under 2.5 at 2.20. At the 3.5 line, Under 3.5 is the favourite at 1.48, compared with 2.55 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.48 | 2.55 |
Handicap prediction
AC Milan (-1.5) is 1.78, while US Lecce (+1.5) is 2.03. At the -1/+1 line, AC Milan (-1) at 1.37 is notably shorter than US Lecce (+1) at 2.85. For the 0 handicap, the odds are 1.05 for AC Milan (0) and 7.20 for US Lecce (0).
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.78 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 2.03 | |
| 1.37 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.85 | |
| 1.05 | 0 | 7.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — No at 1.62 is shorter than Both teams to score — Yes at 2.25: at least one team is more likely not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.25 |
| No | 1.62 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: AC Milan — 2 goals, US Lecce — 0.5 goals.
AC Milan team total
AC Milan team total: Over 1.5 goals at 1.38 is shorter than Under 1.5 at 2.80; at the 2-goal line, Over 2 at 1.65 is shorter than Under 2 at 2.15. At the 2.5 line, by contrast, Under 2.5 is 1.62 compared with 2.25 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | 1.5 | 1.38 |
| 2.15 | 2 | 1.65 |
| 1.62 | 2.5 | 2.25 |
US Lecce team total
US Lecce team total: Under 0.5 goals at 1.65 is shorter than Over 0.5 at 2.15. Under 1 is 1.17 compared with 4.20 for Over 1, while Under 1.5 is 1.08 compared with 5.90 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | 0.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.17 | 1 | 4.20 |
| 1.08 | 1.5 | 5.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Federico La Penna (Italy)
Matches — 16 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 16;
Matches with penalties — 3 of 16.
