Odds overview
Monaco are favourites, with a home win at around 2.05, a draw at 3.35 and a Lille win at 3.80. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.75 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.10. In the handicap market, Monaco Draw No Bet (0) at 1.50 is considerably shorter than Lille Draw No Bet (0) at 2.65.
Why Monaco are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Monaco to win is available at 2.05, a draw at 3.35 and Lille to win at 3.80.
- Monaco have consistently picked up points at home in Ligue 1, avoiding defeat in 9 of their last 10 league matches at Stade Louis II.
- Lille come into the match after dropping points at home in the league with a draw against Brest.
Form and Line-up Monaco
Monaco beat Freiburg 3:0 at home in their most recent European match. After the break, they coped with their opponents’ pressure, used space effectively on the counterattack and extended their lead late on.
Monaco’s matches this season have had a low combined xG of 2.61, the second lowest among the league’s 18 clubs. In 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches, they have allowed opponents fewer than 13.5 shots.
- Monaco have held their opponents to under 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Monaco have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- There have been fewer than 24.5 fouls in 8 of Monaco’s last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Probable line-up: Lukáš Hrádecký, Vanderson, Sadibou Sané, Jordan Teze, Christian Mawissa, Mamadou Coulibaly, Lamine Camara, Alexandr Golovin, Edan Diop, Mathys Detourbet, Paris Brunner.
Form and Line-up Lille
Before their trip to Monaco, Lille lost at home to Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League.
Lille’s away defence remains among the best in Ligue 1: they concede an average of 0.71 goals per match, the lowest figure in the league, and in 9 of their last 10 away league matches, opponents have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target against them.
- There have been under 3.5 goals in 9 of Lille’s last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Lille have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in all 10 of their last Ligue 1 away matches.
- Lille’s opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in all 10 of the team’s last Ligue 1 home matches.
Probable line-up: Berke Özer, Maxima Goffi, Nathan Ngoy, Alexandre Ribeiro, Calvin Verdonk, Ngal'ayel Mukau, Nabil Bentaleb, Benjamin André, Dilane Bakwa, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Soriba Diaoune.
Match outcome probabilities
Monaco to win has odds of 2.05, fair odds of 2.15 and a 46.5% probability. For a draw, the corresponding figures are 3.35, 3.52 and 28.4%; for Lille to win, they are 3.80, 3.99 and 25.1%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monaco to win | 2.05 | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.52 | 28.4% |
| Lille to win | 3.80 | 3.99 | 25.1% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.75, compared with 2.10 for Under 2.5. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is the favourite at 1.38, while Over 3.5 is offered at 2.80.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.38 | 2.80 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 line, Monaco (-1.5) are available at 3.50 and Lille (-1.5) at 6.30; at 1.5, the respective odds are 1.07 and 1.25. At -1, Monaco (-1) and Lille (-1) are offered at 2.80 and 5.60; at 1, the odds are 1.09 and 1.38. On the zero handicap, Monaco (0) at 1.50 are shorter than Lille (0) at 2.65.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.50 | -1.5 | 6.30 |
| 1.07 | 1.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.80 | -1 | 5.60 |
| 1.09 | 1 | 1.38 |
| 1.50 | 0 | 2.65 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.60, while No is at 2.25: the market favours both teams scoring over a match in which at least one fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
29/100
|
3/10
|
73/100
|
| 888sport |
3/10
|
3/10
|
73/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goal totals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 1.5 goals for Monaco and 1 goal for Lille.
Monaco team goals total
For Monaco’s team total, Under 0.5 is 4.50 and Over 0.5 is 1.15; Under 1 is 3.15 and Over 1 is 1.30. At the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1.5 at 1.85 and Over 1.5 at 1.90. At 2 goals, Under 2 is offered at 1.40 and Over 2 at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.85 | 1.5 | 1.90 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.75 |
Lille team goals total
For Lille’s team total, Under 0.5 is 2.90 and Over 0.5 is 1.35; Under 1 is 2.00 and Over 1 is 1.75. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 at 1.47 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 2.00 | 1 | 1.75 |
| 1.47 | 1.5 | 2.60 |
Who Will Referee the Match
François Letexier (France)
Matches — 22 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with red cards — 8 of 22;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 22.
