Odds overview
Monza to win at 2.40 is shorter than both the draw and Cagliari Calcio to win, each at 3.20. In the 2.5-goal totals market, Under 2.5 at 1.75 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.08. On the handicap (0), Monza at 1.68 look more likely than Cagliari Calcio at 2.20.
Why Monza are favourites
Bookmakers offer 2.40 on a Monza win, while the draw and a Cagliari Calcio win are both available at 3.20.
- The hosts have failed to win 9 of their last 10 home matches in Serie A, conceding an average of 2.5 goals per game.
- Cagliari Calcio have organised their defence well: the visitors concede an average of just 0.5 goals per game and are joint top of the league for defensive record.
Form and Line-up Monza
Monza lost 1:3 to Lazio in the previous round, playing most of the match with ten men after Lorenzo Lucchesi was sent off. Even a man down, they reorganised, reduced the deficit in the second half and created several chances to equalise.
Home matches remain difficult for Monza, however: they have failed to register more shots on target than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 home league matches, regularly allowing opponents more than 11 shots at their goal.
- Monza have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- There have been fewer than 10.5 corners in 8 of Monza's last 10 home league matches.
- There have been over 2.5 goals in 8 of Monza's last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Samuel Tornqvist, Kouadio, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Andrea Carboni, Samuele Birindelli, Michael Folorunsho, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Ricardo Mangas, Cyril Ngonge, Exequiel Zeballos, Gustavo Varela.
Lorenzo Lucchesi is awaiting a disciplinary decision after his straight red card, while Ricardo Mangas was injured in the last match.
Form and Line-up Cagliari Calcio
Cagliari Calcio come into the match after a 1:1 home draw with Juventus. Head coach Fabio Pisacane stresses that the team's aim is to retain their place in Italy's top flight.
The Sardinians play pragmatically away from home: they have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 away matches in Serie A, while Cagliari Calcio's opponents have received no more than 2.5 yellow cards in their last 10 matches.
- There have been fewer than 3.5 goals in 9 of Cagliari Calcio's last 10 away matches in Serie A.
- There have been fewer than 4.5 yellow cards in Cagliari Calcio's last 10 Serie A matches.
- Cagliari Calcio have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 league matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-2-1): Elia Caprile, Zé Pedro, Yerry Mina, Juan Rodriguez, Adam Obert, Ndary Adopo, Harry Winks, Alessandro Romano, Yanis Massolin, Daniel Maldini, Paul Mendy.
Kevin Carlos is recovering from an injury, while Alessandro Deiola has returned to full training.
The teams' chances
A Monza win has average odds of 2.40, fair odds of 2.50 and a 40% probability. The draw and a Cagliari Calcio win are rated equally: both have average odds of 3.20, fair odds of 3.33 and a 30% probability.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 2.40 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.33 | 30.0% |
| Cagliari Calcio win | 3.20 | 3.33 | 30.0% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.75, while Over 2.5 is 2.08. At the 3.5-goal line, Under is offered at 1.28 and Over at 3.35.
| Goals line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.75 | 2.08 |
| 3.5 | 1.28 | 3.35 |
Handicap prediction
Monza (-1.5) are available at 4.50 and Cagliari Calcio (-1.5) at 5.90; at the 1.5-goal line, Monza (+1.5) are 1.08 and Cagliari Calcio (+1.5) are 1.15. Monza (-1) are offered at 3.75 against 5.10 for Cagliari Calcio (-1), while Monza (+1) are 1.12 against 1.23 for Cagliari Calcio (+1). On the handicap (0), Monza are 1.68 and Cagliari Calcio are 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.50 | -1.5 | 5.90 |
| 1.08 | 1.5 | 1.15 |
| 3.75 | -1 | 5.10 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.23 |
| 1.68 | 0 | 2.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.75, while Both teams to score — No is 2.00: the outcome in which at least one team fails to score is considered less likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.75 |
| No | 2.00 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
9/25
|
53/100
|
| 888sport |
9/25
|
33/100
|
57/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: 1.5 for Monza and 1 for Cagliari Calcio.
Monza team total goals
Monza team total goals: Under 0.5 at 3.55, Over 0.5 at 1.25; Under 1 at 2.40, Over 1 at 1.53. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is 1.55 and Over is 2.35; at the 2-goal line, Under is 1.18 and Over is 4.15.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.40 | 1 | 1.53 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.35 |
| 1.18 | 2 | 4.15 |
Cagliari Calcio team total goals
Cagliari Calcio team total goals: Under 0.5 at 2.85, Over 0.5 at 1.37; Under 1 at 1.95, Over 1 at 1.80. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is 1.38 and Over is 2.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 0.5 | 1.37 |
| 1.95 | 1 | 1.80 |
| 1.38 | 1.5 | 2.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrea Calzavara (Italy)
Matches — 21 (Serie A, Serie B, 2025/26-2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 21;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 21.
