Odds overview
Napoli are favourites — a Napoli win is available at 1.81, while a Monza win and a draw are quoted at around 4.20 and 4.00 respectively. In the goals market, Over 2.5 at 1.72 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.12. Monza Draw No Bet (0) is available at 2.95, compared with 1.35 for Napoli Draw No Bet (0), again favouring the visitors.
Why Napoli are favourites
Napoli to win is offered at 1.80, while a Monza win and a draw are both quoted at the much longer odds of 4.20.
• Napoli remain a strong attacking side, ranking 3rd in the pre-match Serie A figures for expected goals scored (1.88 xG).
• Napoli defend reliably away from home: their opponents scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 away league matches.
Form and Line-up Monza
Opponents regularly find space around Monza's goal in their Serie A home matches: in 9 of the last 10 games at the Stadio Brianteo, visiting sides attempted more than 11.5 shots and registered at least 5 shots on target.
- More than 7.5 shots on target were recorded in 9 of Monza's last 10 Serie A home matches.
- Monza's opponents received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Serie A home matches.
- Monza's opponents were caught offside fewer than 1.5 times in 9 of their last 10 Serie A home matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Axel Thörnqvist, Saba Goglichidze, Andrea Carboni, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Samuele Birindelli, Marten Foé Ondoa, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Ricardo Mangas, Jalen Robinson, Dany Mota Carvalho, Gustavo Varela
Form and Line-up Napoli
Away from home, Napoli control the tempo and keep games clean: in their last 10 Serie A away matches, their opponents never committed more than 13 fouls, while Napoli were never behind on offsides.
- Napoli took more than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Serie A away matches.
- Napoli had more than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Serie A away matches.
- The officials showed fewer than 4.5 cards in 9 of Napoli's last 10 Serie A away matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Alex Meret, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Rafael Marín, Benoit Badiashile, Mathias Olivera, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, Scott McTominay, Matteo Politano, Noa Lang, Rasmus Højlund
The teams' chances
Napoli to win is quoted at 1.80, with fair odds of 1.88 and a 53.2% fair probability. For Monza to win, the corresponding figures are 4.20, 4.38 and 22.8%; for a draw, they are 4.00, 4.17 and 24.0%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza to win | 4.20 | 4.38 | 22.8% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.17 | 24.0% |
| Napoli to win | 1.80 | 1.88 | 53.2% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.12 and Over 2.5 at 1.72, so the higher-scoring option is favoured. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 at 1.45 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Monza (-1.5) are offered at 7.30, compared with 2.85 for Napoli (-1.5); at +1.5, the odds are 1.37 for Monza (+1.5) and 1.05 for Napoli (+1.5). At -1, Monza (-1) are available at 6.40 and Napoli (-1) at 2.35; at +1, the respective odds are 1.60 and 1.07. On the zero-handicap line, Monza Draw No Bet (0) is available at 2.95 and Napoli Draw No Bet (0) at 1.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.30 | -1.5 | 2.85 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.40 | -1 | 2.35 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 2.95 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.65, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is available at 2.15. The market favours goals from both teams.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/1
|
1/4
|
9/50
|
| 888sport |
21/20
|
1/4
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals predictions
The bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Monza — 1 goal; Napoli — 1.5 goals.
Monza team goals
Monza team goals: Under 0.5 is available at 2.65 and Over 0.5 at 1.42; at the 1-goal line, the odds are 1.80 for Under and 1.95 for Over. At 1.5 goals, Under is offered at 1.35 and Over at 3.00.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.42 |
| 1.80 | 1 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 3.00 |
Napoli team goals
Napoli team goals: Under 0.5 is quoted at 5.20 and Over 0.5 at 1.11; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 3.65 and 1.25. At 1.5 goals, Under is available at 1.95 and Over at 1.80; at the 2-goal line, Under is offered at 1.52 and Over at 2.45.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | 0.5 | 1.11 |
| 3.65 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.95 | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.52 | 2 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Giovanni Airoldi (Italy)
Matches — 12 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 29;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.5;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 12;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 12.
