Odds overview
Sassuolo hold a slight edge in the 1X2 market: the away win is 2.30, while the home win is 3.05 and the draw is 3.45. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 looks more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. In the handicap market, Monza Draw No Bet is 2.20 and Sassuolo Draw No Bet is 1.68, giving the visitors the better chance.
Why Sassuolo are favourites
Bookmakers favour Sassuolo: the visitors are 2.30 to win, while Monza are 3.05 and the draw is 3.45.
- The pre-match standings highlight the difference in early-season form: Sassuolo are ninth in Serie A with 7 points and an 8:7 goal difference, while Monza are 18th with 1 point and a 6:11 goal difference.
- The home side's results reflect persistent problems: Monza have lost 8 of their last 10 matches in the competition.
Form and Line-up Monza
Monza have made a difficult start to the season: they drew with Parma (1:1) on 6 September and lost to Lecce (2:3) on 13 September. Home advantage has not helped so far — Monza have failed to win 9 of their last 10 home matches.
- No more than 10 corners were taken in 9 of Monza's last 10 Serie A home matches.
- In 8 of their last 10 Serie A home matches, Monza committed fewer fouls than their opponents.
- Monza's opponents were caught offside no more than once in 9 of the last 10 home league matches.
Probable Monza line-up (3-4-2-1): Demba Thiam, Andrea Carboni, Lorenzo Lucchesi, Eddy Kouadio, Samuele Birindelli, Ebenezer Akinsanmiro, Michael Folorunsho, Adam Bakoune, Andrea Colpani, Emanuel Ceballos, Gustavo Varela.
Matteo Pessina and Ricardo Mangas will miss the match through injury.
Form and Line-up Sassuolo
Sassuolo come into the round buoyed by a win over Juventus (3:2) and an away draw with Bologna (2:2). Their matches also feature plenty of attacking activity: Sassuolo lead the league's pre-match comparison with 12.75 shots on target per game.
- No more than 25 fouls were recorded in 9 of Sassuolo's last 10 Serie A away matches.
- Sassuolo took no more than 5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- Sassuolo were not beaten by their opponents in offsides in 10 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable Sassuolo line-up (4-3-3): Arijanet Muric, Simone Cinquegrano, Duje Caleta-Car, Fedde Leysen, Josh Doig, Ismael Bakola, Nemanja Matic, Vasilije Adzic, Domenico Berardi, Sebastiano Esposito, Armand Lauriente.
The visitors remain without Ismael Kone, Jay Idzes and Cristian Volpato because of injuries.
Team chances
The fair-odds assessment gives Sassuolo a 41.3% chance of winning at odds of 2.42, Monza 31.2% at 3.21, and the draw 27.5% at 3.63. Market odds are 2.30 for the away win, 3.05 for the home win and 3.45 for the draw.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza win | 3.05 | 3.21 | 31.2% |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.63 | 27.5% |
| Sassuolo win | 2.30 | 2.42 | 41.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 is considered more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.00. The situation is reversed at 3.5: Under 3.5 goals is 1.40, while Over 3.5 goals is 2.75.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap prediction
For the large handicap, Monza (-1.5) is available at 5.10 and Sassuolo (-1.5) at 4.20; at the 1.5 line, Monza (+1.5) at 1.17 and Sassuolo (+1.5) at 1.12 have short odds. At the -1 line, odds are 4.40 for Monza (-1) and 3.50 for Sassuolo (-1), while at +1 they are 1.25 and 1.15 respectively. Sassuolo Draw No Bet at 1.68 is preferred to Monza Draw No Bet at 2.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | -1.5 | 4.20 |
| 1.17 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.40 | -1 | 3.50 |
| 1.25 | 1 | 1.15 |
| 2.20 | 0 | 1.68 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.65 looks more likely than Both teams to score - No at 2.18, under which at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.18 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Monza — 1 goal; Sassuolo — 1.5 goals.
Monza team total
Monza team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.30 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 3.20; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is available at 1.62 and Under 1 at 2.25. At 1.5, Under 1.5 goals has the shorter odds at 1.53, compared with 2.40 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.62 |
| 1.53 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Sassuolo team total
Sassuolo team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 4.00, while at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.40 compared with 2.70 for Under 1. At 1.5, Under 1.5 goals is 1.70 and Over 1.5 goals is 2.08; at the 2-goal line, odds are 1.28 for Under 2 and 3.35 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.00 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.70 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.08 |
| 1.28 | 2 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Daniele Perenzoni (Italy)
Matches — 20 (Serie A, Serie B, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.9;
Matches with red cards — 3 of 20;
Matches with penalties — 1 of 20.
