Odds Overview
Napoli are the favourites: a home win is available at 1.75, while the draw is around 3.65 and an away win is at 4.90. In the main 2.5 goals market, Under 2.5 at 1.75 looks more likely than Over 2.5 at 2.08. Napoli (-1.5) are quoted at 3.15, while Bologna (+1.5) are around 1.30.
Why Napoli Are Favourites for the Match
Napoli to win is available at 1.75, the draw at 3.65 and Bologna to win at 4.90. The arguments for this assessment are:
Bologna have made a poor start to the league — after three rounds, they are 15th with one point and a 2:4 goal difference. The team have yet to find their game and look unconvincing.
Napoli go into the match after a painful 0:1 Champions League defeat to Arsenal, conceding in the 75th minute. Their motivation to make amends at home will be immense.
Although Napoli have lost two of their three Serie A matches, they have faced top opponents — Como and Inter.
Form and Line-up Napoli
After beating Genoa 2:0 in the opening round of Serie A, Napoli suffered two defeats, with the 2:3 loss to Inter especially painful as the Neapolitans led 2:0 before letting their advantage slip. Napoli also made a poor start to the Champions League — losing 0:1 to Arsenal and allowing the London side to produce 4.05 xG.
Key numbers:
Napoli committed no more than 11 fouls in 10 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
In 10 of Napoli's last 10 Serie A matches, the two teams committed a combined maximum of 23 fouls.
Napoli did not lose the offsides count in 10 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable Napoli line-up (4-3-3): Vanja Milinkovic-Savic — Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Rafa Marin, Leonardo Spinazzola — Kevin De Bruyne, Stanislav Lobotka, Antonio Vergara — Matteo Politano, Rasmus Hojlund, Alisson Santos.
Absentees: Scott McTominay, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Alessandro Buongiorno, Giovane, Alex Meret, Luca Marianucci (all injured), Noa Lang (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Bologna
In the previous round, Bologna drew 2:2 at home with Sassuolo, with Roberto Piccoli and Artem Dovbyk scoring in the second half. It was Bologna's first point of the season; before that, they lost 0:1 to Lazio and 0:1 to Atalanta, conceding to the latter in the 90+6th minute.
Key numbers:
No more than 10 corners were taken in 8 of Bologna's last 10 away Serie A matches.
Bologna received no more than 2 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
In 9 of Bologna's last 10 away Serie A matches, the two teams received no more than 4 yellow cards combined.
Probable Bologna line-up (4-2-3-1): Lukasz Skorupski — Emil Holm, Arthur Theate, Torbjorn Heggem, Abdel Rahim — Tommaso Pobega, Lewis Ferguson — Federico Bernardeschi, Jens Odgaard, Nicolo Cambiaghi — Roberto Piccoli.
Absentees: Osama El Azzouzi, Riccardo Orsolini (both injured).
Team Chances
Napoli to win is available at 1.75; the fair odds are 1.84, with a 54.4% probability. The draw is quoted at 3.65, with fair odds of 3.83 and a 26.1% probability. Bologna to win is available at 4.90; the fair odds are 5.14, with a 19.4% probability.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Napoli to win | 1.75 | 1.84 | 54.4% |
Draw | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
Bologna to win | 4.90 | 5.14 | 19.4% |
Total Goals Prediction
In the 2.5 goals market, Under 2.5 at 1.75 is shorter than Over 2.5 at 2.08. At the line of 2, Over 2 is preferred at 1.52 to Under 2 at 2.45, while at 3.5 there is a clear advantage for Under 3.5 at 1.28 over Over 3.5 at 3.35.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.75 | 2.08 |
2 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
3.5 | 1.28 | 3.35 |
Handicap Prediction
Napoli (-1.5) are available at 3.15, while Bologna (+1.5) are at 1.30. At the handicap line of 1, Napoli (-1) are quoted at 2.45 and Bologna (+1) at 1.55. With a zero handicap, Napoli (0) are at 1.30 compared with 3.25 for Bologna (0).
Home | Handicap | Away |
3.15 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.30 |
2.45 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.55 |
1.30 | 0 | 3.25 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - No is quoted at 1.80 and considered more likely than Both teams to score - Yes at 1.95; the former outcome means that at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.95 |
No | 1.80 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X has the shortest odds at 1.20. The 12 option is available at 1.30, while X2 at 2.08 looks less likely.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.20 | 1.30 | 2.08 |
Team Total Goals Prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Napoli — 1.5 goals, Bologna — 0.5 goals.
Napoli Team Total
Napoli team total: Under 0.5 is quoted at 4.50 versus Over 0.5 at 1.15; at the line of 1, Under is at 3.25 and Over at 1.30. At 1.5, the odds are almost equal: Under at 1.82 and Over at 1.93. At the line of 2, Under at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Over at 3.00.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.50 | 0.5 | 1.15 |
3.25 | 1 | 1.30 |
1.82 | 1.5 | 1.93 |
1.35 | 2 | 3.00 |
Bologna Team Total
Bologna team total: at the line of 0.5, Over at 1.63 is shorter than Under at 2.20. For a total of 1, Under is at 1.50 versus Over at 2.55, while at 1.5, Under is at 1.22 versus Over at 3.80.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.20 | 0.5 | 1.63 |
1.50 | 1 | 2.55 |
1.22 | 1.5 | 3.80 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Kevin Bonacina (Italy)
Matches – 12 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match – 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.5;
Matches with red cards – 0 out of 12;
Matches with penalties – 1 out of 12.
