Odds overview
AS Roma are slight favourites in the 1X2 market: a Roma win is 2.55 against 2.80 for Napoli, while the draw is 3.35. Over 2.5 goals at 1.88 is marginally shorter than Under 2.5 at 1.92. On the handicap (0) market, Roma at 1.82 are shorter than Napoli at 2.00.
Why AS Roma are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: an AS Roma win is available at 2.55, a Napoli win at 2.80 and the draw at 3.35.
- AS Roma have built an effective defence and concede fewer goals than any other side in the league — an average of 0.43 per game.
- Napoli have suffered setbacks in Serie A, losing a recent away match to Venice 0:1.
Form and Line-up Napoli
Napoli regularly threaten opponents' goals at home: they beat Bodø/Glimt 4:3 in the UEFA Champions League and Frosinone 3:0 in the league. They average 1.43 goals per match this season.
Massimiliano Allegri's side also played a closely contested, high-scoring match four days before facing AS Roma, increasing the likelihood of changes to the starting line-up.
- Napoli's opponents committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in each of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- Napoli received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in each of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- Napoli recorded more than 11.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 9 of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
Probable Napoli line-up (4-3-3): Alex Meret, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Amir Rrahmani, Rafael Marín, Leonardo Spinazzola, Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Kevin De Bruyne, Scott McTominay, Matteo Politano, Noa Lang, Rasmus Højlund.
Alessandro Buongiorno and David Neres remain doubtful, with the medical staff yet to make official decisions.
Form and Line-up AS Roma
AS Roma are in good form, having beaten Slovan 4:0 in the UEFA Champions League and Genoa 2:0 in the league after a 0:0 draw with Como.
Gian Piero Gasperini's AS Roma have been prolific — scoring 2.29 goals per match.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 10 Serie A matches.
- AS Roma have not lost the offside count in any of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- AS Roma's opponents received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of Roma's last 10 away Serie A matches.
Probable AS Roma line-up (3-4-2-1): Pierluigi Gollini, Daniele Ghilardi, Leonardo Balerdi, Mario Hermoso, Nahuel Molina, Marten de Roon, Niccolo Pisilli, Wesley Franca, Rodrigo Mora, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Donyell Malen.
Lorenzo Pellegrini will miss the match through injury, while Paulo Dybala is also unavailable.
The teams' chances
At average odds, an AS Roma win at 2.55 is favoured over a Napoli win at 2.80, while the draw at 3.35 is less likely. The margin-free assessment gives Roma a 37.4% chance of winning at fair odds of 2.67, Napoli a 34.1% chance at 2.93 and the draw a 28.5% chance at 3.51.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli win | 2.80 | 2.93 | 34.1% |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.51 | 28.5% |
| AS Roma win | 2.55 | 2.67 | 37.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.88 is slightly shorter than Under 2.5 at 1.92. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 at 1.35 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.95.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.92 | 1.88 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
For the -1.5 handicap, AS Roma (-1.5) are at 4.60, compared with Napoli (-1.5) at 4.90. At +1.5, Roma (+1.5) at 1.12 are shorter than Napoli (+1.5) at 1.14. For -1, Roma (-1) are at 3.95 and Napoli (-1) at 4.15; for +1, Roma (+1) are at 1.17 and Napoli (+1) at 1.20. At handicap (0), Roma (0) at 1.82 are favoured over Napoli (0) at 2.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | -1.5 | 4.60 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.15 | -1 | 3.95 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 2.00 | 0 | 1.82 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.68 is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.12; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.68 |
| No | 2.12 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/2
|
9/25
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines for this match: Napoli — 1 goal; AS Roma — 1.5 goals.
Napoli team total goals
Napoli team total goals: at 0.5, Over is much shorter at 1.30 than Under at 3.25; at 1, Over at 1.65 is shorter than Under at 2.18. At 1.5, Under at 1.52 is favoured over Over at 2.45.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.18 | 1 | 1.65 |
| 1.52 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
AS Roma team total goals
AS Roma team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.25 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.55, while at 1, Over at 1.50 is favoured over Under at 2.50. At 1.5, Under at 1.60 is shorter than Over at 2.25; at 2, Under is 1.22 against 3.85 for Over.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.22 | 2 | 3.85 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrea Colombo (Italy)
Matches — 16 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 4 of 16.
