In the Copa Libertadores group stage, Palmeiras have hardly shown their full power. For example, the away head-to-head meeting with Junior FC (1:1) was played at a calm tempo: the Brazilians created more (1.89-1.15 xG), but they were behind for as long as 45 minutes.
The narrow defeat to Cerro Porteno at Allianz Parque (1:0) cost the green-and-whites top spot in Group F. The Paraguayans needed only 26% possession and 0.62 xG to win, so Junior FC should take note of a counter-attacking approach.
Palmeiras under Ferreira always control the tempo and have plenty of the ball. In major matches, that regularly pays off: at the weekend, the green-and-whites destroyed Flamengo away from home (3:0), thereby pulling clear of a rival in the Serie A. Even so, the Brazilians lack consistency: they approach the break for the 2026 World Cup on a run of three matches without a win in Sao Paulo.
Junior FC have lost only one of their last four away matches. The red-and-blues can still jump into third place, which would send them into the Copa Sudamericana, but they need points to do so. The Colombians will certainly not take risks away to Palmeiras. The plan is the same as in the home meeting: occasional counter-attacks, with defence the priority.
We doubt that both sides will be able to achieve their aims. Palmeiras may be satisfied with a draw, while Junior FC certainly will not score more than the Brazilians away from home. We think there is a high probability of another draw in the head-to-head meeting.
