Odds overview
Paris are narrow favourites in the 1X2 market: a home win is 2.30, an away win is 3.05 and the draw is 3.55. Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.80, while Under 2.5 is 2.00. In the main handicap market, Paris (0) at 1.70 look preferable to Monaco (0) at 2.17.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers slightly favour Paris: a home win is offered at 2.30, the draw at 3.55 and a Monaco win at 3.05.
- Paris have lost two of their last three Ligue 1 matches.
- Monaco have topped Ligue 1 in four of the eight rounds played this season.
- Monaco's entire squad is valued at almost twice as much as all of Paris's players.
Form and Line-up Paris
Paris come into this match after a 1:2 away defeat to Lens last Saturday. Their most recent home match was much higher scoring — they beat Rennes 4:3. Liam Rosenior's side are sixth in the table, but their five-match unbeaten run at the start of the league season is over: they have taken three points from their last three matches.
- Paris have had more than 3.5 shots on target in nine of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- Paris have had more than 11.5 shots in eight of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
Probable Paris line-up (4-2-3-1): Nkambadio, Camara, Coppola, Mbow, Otávio, Lopez, Lees-Melou, Kebbal, Pagis, Koleosho, Sinayoko
Absentees: Ikoné, Sangui (injured); Matondo (doubtful)
Form and Line-up Monaco
Monaco's most recent league match ended in a 1:1 home draw with Lille on 25 October. Even a second-half sending-off for Lille did not help Monaco force a winner: they could only equalise through an Edan Diop goal. Filipe Luís's side have a heavier schedule than their opponents — they are also competing in the league phase of the UEFA Conference League. In the latest round, Monaco beat one of their main rivals, Freiburg, 3:0 without conceding.
- Monaco's opponents have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in eight of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
- Monaco have matched or exceeded their opponents' shots on target in nine of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
Probable Monaco line-up (4-2-3-1): Hradecky, Vanderson, Sane, Teze, Nazinho, Camara, Zakaria, Abline, Golovin, Detourbet, Brunner
Absentees: Fati (injured)
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Paris a 41.6% chance of winning: average odds for a Paris win are 2.30, compared with fair odds of 2.40. The draw has a 27.0% chance, with average and fair odds of 3.55 and 3.71 respectively; a Monaco win has a 31.4% chance, with odds of 3.05 and 3.19.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paris to win | 2.30 | 2.40 | 41.6% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.71 | 27.0% |
| Monaco to win | 3.05 | 3.19 | 31.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 at 1.80 is considered more likely than Under 2.5 at 2.00. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is considerably shorter at 1.40, while Over 3.5 is offered at 2.75.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| 3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap prediction
In the handicap market, Paris (-1.5) are 4.20 and Monaco (-1.5) are 5.00. The odds for a +1.5 handicap are close: Paris (+1.5) are 1.12 and Monaco (+1.5) are 1.17. Paris (-1) are available at 3.45, compared with 4.40 for Monaco (-1); Paris (+1) are 1.16, compared with 1.25 for Monaco (+1). For a handicap of 0, Paris are 1.70 and Monaco are 2.17.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.20 | -1.5 | 5.00 |
| 1.12 | 1.5 | 1.17 |
| 3.45 | -1 | 4.40 |
| 1.16 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.70 | 0 | 2.17 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.65, while Both teams to score - No, meaning at least one team will fail to score, is 2.18.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.65 |
| No | 2.18 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
2/5
|
29/100
|
57/100
|
| 888sport |
2/5
|
3/10
|
3/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Paris at 1.5 goals and Monaco at 1 goal.
Paris team goals
For Paris, Over 0.5 goals is 1.20, compared with 4.10 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.40 and Under 1 is 2.75; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.70 than Over 1.5 at 2.07. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.28 and Over 2 is 3.35.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.75 | 1 | 1.40 |
| 1.70 | 1.5 | 2.07 |
| 1.28 | 2 | 3.35 |
Monaco team goals
For Monaco, Over 0.5 goals is offered at 1.30 and Under 0.5 at 3.25. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.60, compared with 2.25 for Under 1; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.53 and Over 1.5 is 2.40.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.53 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Jérémy Stinat (France)
Matches — 19 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.7;
Matches with a red card — 7 of 19;
Matches with a penalty — 2 of 19.
