Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Genoa are slight favourites: the away win is 2.50, while the draw is available at 3.05 and the home win at 3.15. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Under is clearly preferred to Over: 1.55 versus 2.45. With a handicap of 0, Genoa Draw No Bet is 1.72, while Parma Draw No Bet is offered at 2.13.
Why Genoa are favourites for the match
Parma to win is available at 3.15, the draw is 3.05 and Genoa to win is 2.50.
• Genoa are 19th in the Serie A table with one point after four matches, but Parma's position is no better: the hosts also have only one point and are joint-bottom for goals scored, averaging 0.5 per game.
• In 10 of the last 12 head-to-head meetings between Parma and Genoa, Genoa under 1.5 goals has landed.
Form and Line-up Parma
In Matchday 4 of Serie A, Parma lost 1:2 away to Como, scoring their only goal only in added time, having previously drawn 1:1 at home to Monza. Head coach Carlos Cuesta plans to retain the three-centre-back system, while David Romero is pushing for a starting place after scoring as a substitute.
At home, Parma's opponents have been caught offside at least twice in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- Parma have scored no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches
- No more than three goals have been scored in 9 of Parma's last 10 Serie A matches
- In each of their last 10 Serie A matches, Parma's opponents have received no more than two yellow cards
Probable Parma line-up (5-3-2): Edoardo Corvi, Sascha Burchert, Enrico Delprato, Mariano Troilo, Diego Carlos, Emanuele Valeri, Vincent Sierro, Mandela Keita, Adrian Bernabe, David Romero, El Bilal Toure
Absentees: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (injured)
Form and Line-up Genoa
Daniele De Rossi's side drew 1:1 at home to Frosinone in Serie A and earned a narrow 1:0 win over Sudtirol in the Round of 32 of the Coppa Italia. Captain Johan Vasquez urged his team-mates to take the match seriously and show more courage on the pitch, even though he will be unable to help them because of his sending-off.
Genoa are struggling in attack: they are joint-bottom for scoring with an average of 0.5 goals per game, while no more than nine shots on target have been recorded in 9 of Genoa's last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Genoa have scored no more than one goal in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches
- No more than two goals have been scored in 8 of Genoa's last 10 away Serie A matches
- Genoa have taken no more than five corners in 8 of their last 10 away Serie A matches
Probable Genoa line-up (3-4-1-2):Justin Bijlow, Alessandro Marcandalli, Sebastian Otoa, Leo Ostigard, Kingsley Ehizibue, Morten Frendrup, Djibril Sow, Mikael Ellertsson, Tommaso Baldanzi, Milutin Osmajic, Lorenzo Colombo
Absentees: Johan Vasquez (suspended), Elias Gavel (injured)
Team chances
The average odds are 2.50 for Genoa to win, 3.05 for the draw and 3.15 for Parma to win. The fair odds are 2.61 for Genoa to win, 3.19 for the draw and 3.29 for Parma to win, corresponding to probabilities of 38.3%, 31.4% and 30.4% respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma win | 3.15 | 3.29 | 30.4% |
| Draw | 3.05 | 3.19 | 31.4% |
| Genoa win | 2.50 | 2.61 | 38.3% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals at 1.55 is clearly more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.45. At the 2-goal line, the odds are almost level, but Over is slightly shorter at 1.85 than Under at 1.92. For the 3.5-goal total, the market clearly favours Under at 1.15 versus 4.50 for Over.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.55 | 2.45 |
| 2 | 1.92 | 1.85 |
| 3.5 | 1.15 | 4.50 |
Handicap prediction
Genoa (-1.5) at 5.20 is rated more likely than Parma (-1.5) at 6.70. At the 1.5 line, the shortest odds are for Genoa (+1.5) at 1.06 and Parma (+1.5) at 1.11. Genoa (-1) is 4.20 versus 5.70 for Parma (-1), while at the 1 handicap, Genoa (+1) is 1.09 and Parma (+1) is 1.17. At the 0 line, Genoa Draw No Bet at 1.72 is preferred to Parma Draw No Bet at 2.13.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.70 | -1.5 | 5.20 |
| 1.11 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.70 | -1 | 4.20 |
| 1.17 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.13 | 0 | 1.72 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.73 is rated more likely than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.05: the market expects at least one side not to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 2.05 |
| No | 1.73 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
9/25
|
9/25
|
| 888sport |
1/2
|
9/25
|
9/25
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Parma — 1 goal, Genoa — 1 goal.
Parma team total
Parma team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.50 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 2.50. At the 1-goal line, Under is shorter at 1.65 than Over at 2.18, while for 1.5 goals, Under at 1.30 is clearly more likely than Over at 3.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.65 | 1 | 2.18 |
| 1.30 | 1.5 | 3.30 |
Genoa team total
Genoa team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.37 is rated more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 2.85. At the 1-goal line, the odds are almost level: Over is 1.85 and Under is 1.90. For 1.5 goals, Under at 1.40 is clearly preferred to Over at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 0.5 | 1.37 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
