Odds overview
Parma are slight favourites: the home win is available at 2.45, while the draw and the away win are quoted at 3.10 and 3.15. For the main total of 2.5, Under 2.5 goals has shorter odds — 1.60 versus 2.35 for Over 2.5 goals. Parma Draw No Bet at 1.70 looks preferable to Monza Draw No Bet at 2.15.
Why Parma are favourites
Bookmakers give Parma a slight edge: a home win is quoted at 2.45, a Monza win at 3.15 and the draw at 3.10.
Monza have not won 9 of their last 10 Serie A away matches, showing recurring difficulties in picking up points on the road.
The visitors consistently allow opponents to create chances: in their last 10 Serie A away matches, Monza have allowed at least four shots on target.
Form and Line-up Parma
Parma have serious attacking problems at the start of the season: having scored no goals, they are bottom of the league for scoring. The low-scoring trend is also evident in first halves, with Under 1.5 goals landing in 11 consecutive matches. A 0:2 home defeat in the Coppa Italia on 1 September provided further evidence of their attacking struggles.
Key numbers:
In 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches, Parma have taken no more than 5 corners.
In 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches, Parma have committed no more than 12 fouls.
Parma have scored no more than 1 goal in 9 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
Probable Parma line-up (4-3-3): Edoardo Corvi — Enrico Delprato — Mariano Troilo — Abdoulaye Ndiaye — Emanuele Valeri — Abdou-Salam Konate — Mandela Keita — Adrian Bernabe — Sascha Britschgi — El Bilal Toure — Simone Lontani.
Form and Line-up Monza
Ahead of Matchday 3, Monza are 18th in the Serie A table without a point after two defeats, with an aggregate score of 3:7. Away from home, they have been extremely passive in attack: in each of their last 10 league away matches, they have had fewer shots on target than their opponents and have never exceeded 12.5 shots per game.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches, Monza have taken no more than 5 corners.
Monza have scored no more than one goal in 8 of their last 10 Serie A away matches.
In 9 of their last 10 Serie A away matches, Monza have not received more yellow cards than their opponents.
Probable Monza line-up (3-4-2-1): Demba Thiam — Eddy Kouadio — Lorenzo Lucchesi — Andrea Carboni — Samuele Birindelli — Manga Foe Ondoa — Mathis Mout — Ricardo Mangas — Andrea Colpani — Patrick Cutrone — Gustavo Varela.
Team chances
A Parma win is quoted at 2.45; the fair odds are 2.57, with a 38.9% probability. The draw is available at 3.10, with fair odds of 3.25 and a 30.8% probability, while a Monza win is at 3.15, 3.30 and 30.3% respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Parma to win | 2.45 | 2.57 | 38.9% |
Draw | 3.10 | 3.25 | 30.8% |
Monza to win | 3.15 | 3.30 | 30.3% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5-goal total, Under 2.5 goals is at 1.60 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.35. For the line of 2, the odds are 2.00 for Under and 1.75 for Over, while for 3.5 they are 1.17 and 4.20 respectively: the odds lean more strongly towards low scoring at the higher lines.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.60 | 2.35 |
2 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
3.5 | 1.17 | 4.20 |
Handicap prediction
Parma -1.5 is available at 4.90 and Monza -1.5 at 6.70; for the 1.5 line, the odds are 1.06 and 1.12. Parma -1 is quoted at 4.20 versus 5.70 for Monza -1, while for the line of 1 they are 1.09 versus 1.20. Parma Draw No Bet at 1.70 is shorter than Monza Draw No Bet at 2.15.
Home | Handicap | Away |
4.90 | -1.5 | 6.70 |
1.06 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
4.20 | -1 | 5.70 |
1.09 | 1 | 1.20 |
1.70 | 0 | 2.15 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.75 is shorter than Both teams to score - Yes at 2.00, indicating that a scenario in which at least one team does not score is considered more likely.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.00 |
No | 1.75 |
Double chance prediction
1X and 12 are available at 1.40, while X2 is at 1.55; the option of Monza avoiding defeat is quoted higher than the other double-chance bets.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.40 | 1.40 | 1.55 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Parma — 1 goal, Monza — 1 goal.
Parma team total
Parma team total: Under 0.5 goals is at 2.90 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.35. For the line of 1, the odds are 2.00 for Under and 1.77 for Over, while for 1.5 they are 1.42 and 2.65 respectively; the market rates Parma to score at least once considerably more highly, but is cautious about two or more goals.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.90 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
2.00 | 1 | 1.77 |
1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Monza team total
Monza team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.55 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.48. For the line of 1, the odds are 1.67 for Under and 2.13 for Over, while for 1.5 they are 1.30 and 3.20 respectively; the odds favour Monza scoring no more than one goal.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.55 | 0.5 | 1.48 |
1.67 | 1 | 2.13 |
1.30 | 1.5 | 3.20 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Federico La Penna (Italy)
Matches — 15 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4;
Matches with red cards — 1 of 15;
Matches with penalties — 3 of 15.
