Odds overview
PSV are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.43, while the draw is quoted at 5.10 and an away win at 6.50. In the main 2.5-goal totals market, Over is considerably more likely at 1.45 than Under at 2.60. In the handicaps, PSV (-1.5) is 2.10 and Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.5) is 1.75; PSV are also favoured on the 0 handicap, at 1.15 versus 4.60.
Why PSV are favourites
A PSV win is quoted at 1.43, the draw at 5.10 and a Shakhtar victory at 6.50. The arguments for this assessment are:
PSV have made a strong start to the Dutch league season, taking 13 points from a possible 15 and scoring 18 goals in five rounds.
At least three goals have been scored in 9 of PSV's last 10 home Champions League matches. The Eindhoven side consistently feature in high-scoring European home games and rarely fail to score.
Shakhtar have already lost to Polissia early in the Ukrainian Premier League season, even though the Ukrainian league is of a lower standard than the Dutch one.
Form and Line-up PSV
After an opening 2:2 draw with Fortuna in the Eredivisie, PSV responded with four consecutive victories by an aggregate score of 16:4. Sergino Dest has been particularly impressive, with the American defender recording two goals and two assists.
Key numbers:
In 8 of their last 10 home Champions League matches, PSV have taken at least 5 corners.
In 10 of PSV's last 10 home Champions League matches, the two teams have registered at least 9 shots on target.
In 9 of PSV's last 10 home Champions League matches, the combined total of both teams' shot attempts, including blocked shots, exceeded 26.5.
Probable PSV line-up (4-2-3-1): Matej Kovar — Sergino Dest, Lutsharel Geertruida, Armando Obispo, Filip Kostic — Kento Sano, Paul Wanner — Ivan Perisic, Guus Til, Ruben van Bommel — Ricardo Pepi.
Absentees: Mauro Junior (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar have made a decent start to the league season, recording four wins in five matches by an aggregate score of 10:2, but their only slip-up was a 0:2 defeat to Polissia, who top the Ukrainian Premier League table.
Key numbers:
Shakhtar have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Over 1.5 goals has landed in 8 of Shakhtar's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Under 3.5 goals has landed in 4 of Shakhtar's last 5 matches.
Probable Shakhtar Donetsk line-up (4-3-3): Dmytro Riznyk — Vinicius Tobias, Valerii Bondar, Mykola Matviienko, Pedro Henrique — Oleh Ocheretko, Marlon Gomes — Alisson, Isaque, Newertton — Kaua Elias.
Team chances
A home win is available at 1.43; fair odds are 1.50, with a probability of 66.6%. The draw is 5.10, with fair odds of 5.35 and a probability of 18.7%, while an away win is 6.50, 6.82 and 14.7% respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
PSV to win | 1.43 | 1.50 | 66.6% |
Draw | 5.10 | 5.35 | 18.7% |
Shakhtar Donetsk to win | 6.50 | 6.82 | 14.7% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 is considerably shorter than Under at 2.60. At the 3.5-goal line, the market leans slightly more towards Under at 1.72 than Over at 2.13.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.60 | 1.45 |
3.5 | 1.72 | 2.13 |
Handicap prediction
PSV (-1.5) is available at 2.10 and Shakhtar Donetsk (+1.5) at 1.75, making the visitors with a handicap the more attractive option in terms of odds. At the -1 line, PSV (-1) is 1.62 and Shakhtar Donetsk (+1) is 2.20. On the 0 handicap, PSV (0) is quoted at 1.15 against 4.60 for Shakhtar Donetsk (0).
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.10 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.75 |
1.62 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 2.20 |
1.15 | 0 | 4.60 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.65 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.15, meaning at least one team will not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.65 |
No | 2.15 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.13 and 12 at 1.19 are rated considerably more likely than X2 at 2.85; the visitors' double chance remains the longest option.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.13 | 1.19 | 2.85 |
Team totals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: PSV — 2 goals, Shakhtar Donetsk — 1 goal.
PSV team total
PSV team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is substantially more likely than Under 0.5 at 8.00. At the 1.5-goal line, Over is 1.40 versus 2.75 for Under; at 2 goals, it is 1.65 versus 2.15. For the 2.5-goal total, Under at 1.65 is preferred to Over at 2.15.
Under | Team total | Over |
8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
2.75 | 1.5 | 1.40 |
2.15 | 2 | 1.65 |
1.65 | 2.5 | 2.15 |
Shakhtar Donetsk team total
Shakhtar Donetsk team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.55 is rated more likely than Under 0.5 at 2.35. At the 1-goal line, Under at 1.58 is preferred to Over at 2.30, while at 1.5 goals, Under at 1.28 is preferred to Over at 3.30.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.35 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
1.58 | 1 | 2.30 |
1.28 | 1.5 | 3.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Halil Umut Meler (Turkey)
Matches — 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 5.1;
Matches with red cards — 0 of 8;
Matches with penalties — 3 of 8.
