Odds overview
RB Leipzig are favourites, with a home win available at around 1.79, compared with 4.40 for a draw and 3.85 for a PSV win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is much shorter than Under 2.5 goals — 1.34 against 2.98. For the handicaps, PSV (-1) have shorter odds than RB Leipzig (-1) — 1.60 against 2.22.
Why RB Leipzig are favourites
The bookmakers favour the hosts: an RB Leipzig win is offered at 1.79, a PSV win at 3.85 and a draw at 4.40.
- RB Leipzig have avoided defeat in 9 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- PSV have won just once in their last 10 Champions League matches.
Form and Line-up RB Leipzig
The German club have been well organised defensively at home: RB Leipzig have yet to concede a goal on their own ground this season.
- RB Leipzig have conceded fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- There have been over 2.5 goals in 9 of RB Leipzig's last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- RB Leipzig have scored more than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
Probable RB Leipzig line-up (4-2-3-1): Maarten Vandevoordt, Ridle Baku, Willi Orban, Castello Lukeba, David Raum, Ezechiel Banzuzi, Neil El Aynaoui, Andrija Maksimovic, Christopher Nkunku, Antonio Nusa, Rômulo.
Form and Line-up PSV
The Dutch club have struggled to create chances away from home in the Champions League. PSV have not won the shots-on-target count in any of their last 10 away matches in the competition.
- PSV have had fewer than 5.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
- PSV have had fewer than 13.5 shots in 8 of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
- PSV have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in each of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
Probable PSV line-up (4-2-3-1): Matěj Kovář, Sergino Dest, Ryan Flamingo, Armando Obispo, Mauro Júnior, Kodai Sano, Noah Fernandez, Esmir Bajraktarević, Guus Til, Ruben van Bommel, Sven Mijnans.
The teams' chances
An RB Leipzig win is offered at 1.79, with fair odds of 1.87 and a fair probability of 53.4%. A draw is available at 4.40, with fair odds of 4.60 and a probability of 21.7%; the corresponding figures for a PSV win are 3.85, 4.03 and 24.8%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig win | 1.79 | 1.87 | 53.4% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.60 | 21.7% |
| PSV win | 3.85 | 4.03 | 24.8% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 is much shorter than Under 2.5 — 1.34 against 2.98. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 is available at 1.12 and Under 2 at 5.00. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 and Over 3.5 are both offered at 1.87.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.98 | 1.34 |
| 2 | 5.00 | 1.12 |
| 3.5 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
Handicap prediction
RB Leipzig (-1) are offered at 2.22, longer than PSV (-1) at 1.60. In the Draw No Bet (0) market, RB Leipzig are available at 1.53 and PSV at 2.37.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.22 | -1 | 1.60 |
| 1.53 | 0 | 2.37 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/50
|
17/100
|
69/50
|
| William Hill |
9/50
|
9/50
|
7/5
|
| 888sport |
9/50
|
9/50
|
7/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: RB Leipzig — 2 goals; PSV — 1.5 goals.
RB Leipzig team total goals
For RB Leipzig's team total, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.08 against 5.90 for Under 0.5; at the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is 1.47 and Under 1.5 is 2.51. The odds are close at 2 goals: Under 2 is 1.78 and Over 2 is 1.98. At 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is shorter at 1.51, compared with 2.41 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.90 | 0.5 | 1.08 |
| 2.51 | 1.5 | 1.47 |
| 1.78 | 2 | 1.98 |
| 1.51 | 2.5 | 2.41 |
PSV team total goals
For PSV's team total, Over 0.5 goals is available at 1.23 and Under 0.5 at 3.65. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.66 against 2.12 for Over 1.5; at 2 goals, Under 2 is 1.26 and Over 2 is 3.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.65 | 0.5 | 1.23 |
| 1.66 | 1.5 | 2.12 |
| 1.26 | 2 | 3.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Nicholas Walsh (Scotland)
Matches — 14 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 25;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) — 4.1;
Matches with a red card — 0 out of 14;
Matches with a penalty — 5 out of 14.
