Odds Overview
A home win is available at around 1.60, while the draw is quoted at 4.40 and an away win at 5.10. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.52 is notably favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.45. In the Draw No Bet market, the home side at 1.25 is much shorter than the away side at 3.65.
Why Real Madrid Are the Match Favourites
The bookmakers favour the home side: a Real Madrid win is quoted at 1.60, the draw at 4.40 and an Inter win at 5.10.
- At home, Madrid consistently outdo opponents in terms of pressure: Real Madrid have had more total shots, including blocked efforts, in 9 of their last 10 Champions League matches at the Bernabeu.
- The fixture schedule also favours Madrid: they played their previous competitive match on Friday, giving them an extra day of rest compared with Inter, who played on Saturday.
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
In the latest round of the domestic league, Real Madrid lost 0:1 to Real Betis despite creating enough chances for a different result. Head coach Jose Mourinho publicly backed the players after the match, highlighting the quality of the team's play and the players' commitment.
At home in European competition, Madrid maintain a high level of attacking activity: they have not been outshot by opponents in any of their last 10 home Champions League matches.
Key numbers:
- Real Madrid and their opponents have scored at least 3 goals in 9 of their last 10 home Champions League matches.
- At least 9 corners have been taken in 9 of Real Madrid's last 10 home Champions League matches.
- Real Madrid and their opponents have committed at least 22 fouls in 8 of their last 10 home Champions League matches.
Probable Real Madrid line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois, Denzel Dumfries, Ibrahima Konate, Dean Huijsen, Marc Cucurella, Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Yan Diomande, Brahim Diaz, Vinicius Junior, Kylian Mbappe
Raul Asencio, Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy and Rodrygo will miss the match; Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Guler and Bernardo Silva are suspended. Aurelien Tchouameni has returned to training, but his involvement remains in doubt.
Form and Line-up Inter
Inter travel to Madrid after a comeback 3:2 win over Napoli: they were 0:2 down but turned the match around and scored the decisive goal late on. Head coach Cristian Chivu stressed that Inter did not fall apart after conceding, retained their style of play and increased the tempo.
Inter are cautious and restrained in away matches in European competition: in 8 of their last 10 away Champions League matches, the two teams have committed no more than 21 fouls in total.
Key numbers:
- Inter have taken 5 or fewer corners in 8 of their last 10 away Champions League matches.
- Inter have scored at least twice in 8 of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- No more than 4 yellow cards have been shown in 9 of Inter's last 10 Champions League matches.
Probable Inter line-up (3-5-2): Josep Martinez, Yann-Aurel Bisseck, Manuel Akanji, Alessandro Bastoni, Andy Diouf, Nicolo Barella, Piotr Zielinski, Petar Sucic, Federico Dimarco, Pio Esposito, Lautaro Martinez
Federico Dimarco sustained a knee injury against Napoli, so his involvement remains in doubt.
Team Chances
Home win: average odds of 1.60, fair odds of 1.68 and a probability of 59.6%. The draw is available at 4.40, with fair odds of 4.61 and a probability of 21.7%. Away win: 5.10, fair odds of 5.35 and a probability of 18.7%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid to win | 1.60 | 1.68 | 59.6% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 4.61 | 21.7% |
| Inter to win | 5.10 | 5.35 | 18.7% |
Total Goals Prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.52, compared with 2.45 for Under 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.60, while Over 3.5 goals is quoted at 2.30.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.45 | 1.52 |
| 3.5 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
Handicap Prediction
Home handicap (-1.5) is available at 2.50, while away handicap (-1.5) is available at 7.90. At the 1.5 line, the odds are 1.04 for home handicap (1.5) and 1.50 for away handicap (1.5). Home handicap (-1) is quoted at 1.98, compared with 6.80 for away handicap (-1); home handicap (1) is 1.06, compared with 1.83 for away handicap (1). In the Draw No Bet market, the home side at 1.25 is shorter than the away side at 3.65.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | -1.5 | 7.90 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.98 | -1 | 6.80 |
| 1.06 | 1 | 1.83 |
| 1.25 | 0 | 3.65 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score - Yes at 1.60 is shorter than the opposite outcome at 2.25 and is therefore considered more likely. The Both teams to score - No bet means that at least one of the teams will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double Chance Prediction
1X is quoted at 1.19, 12 at 1.25 and X2 at 2.35; the option of the home side not winning is notably longer.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
19/100
|
1/4
|
27/20
|
Team Total Goals Prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Real Madrid — 2 goals, Inter — 1 goal.
Real Madrid Team Total Goals
Real Madrid team total goals: Under 0.5 goals — 6.60, Over 0.5 goals — 1.06; Under 1.5 goals — 2.40, Over 1.5 goals — 1.55. At the 2-goal line, the odds are close: Under 2 goals at 1.82 and Over 2 goals at 1.95. For 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 goals is quoted at 1.48 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.55.
| Under | Team total goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 6.60 | 0.5 | 1.06 |
| 2.40 | 1.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.82 | 2 | 1.95 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Inter Team Total Goals
Inter team total goals: Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.60 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.45. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is quoted at 1.77, compared with 2.00 for Over 1 goal. At 1.5 goals, the odds are 1.35 for Under 1.5 goals and 2.90 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.77 | 1 | 2.00 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.90 |
Who will referee the match
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches – 18 (International matches, 2025/26 - 2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 4,5;
Matches with red cards – 1 out of 18;
Matches with penalties – 1 out of 18.
