Odds overview
Roma to win at 1.72 make them clear favourites: the draw is available at 3.80 and Atalanta to win at 4.90. In the main total market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.85 are only marginally favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 1.95. In the main handicap line, Roma Draw No Bet is priced at 1.27, while Atalanta Draw No Bet is available at 3.40.
Why Roma are favourites
Roma to win are available at 1.72, the draw at 3.80 and Atalanta to win at 4.90. The arguments for this assessment are:
Roma are highly assured at home — they are unbeaten in 13 consecutive Serie A matches.
This season, Roma have already thrashed Fiorentina 4:0 at home — they are in excellent form and playing vibrant attacking football.
Atalanta played four competitive matches from 20 to 31 August, including Conference League qualifying, while Roma had a lighter workload. Even with four days to prepare, the visitors have accumulated fatigue, which could affect them away to fresher opposition.
Another factor was Marten de Roon's move from Atalanta to Roma immediately before the match. The Bergamo side have lost one of their key defensive midfielders, while Roma have strengthened instead — shifting the balance in midfield in favour of the home side.
Form and Line-up Roma
In Serie A Matchday 2, Roma thrashed Lecce 4:0 away, having dismantled Fiorentina by the same scoreline, 4:0, in the opening round. Head coach Gian Piero Gasperini spoke positively about the team's condition, stressing in particular that the squad is being bolstered by players returning from the World Cup. Marten de Roon's move from Atalanta to Roma is another detail ahead of the game.
Key numbers:
Over 2.5 goals have landed in seven consecutive matches.
Roma have scored first in eight of their last 10 matches.
Fewer than four yellow cards have been shown in eight consecutive matches.
Probable Roma line-up (3-4-2-1): Mile Svilar — Daniele Ghilardi, Gianluca Mancini, Mario Hermoso — Emanuele Lulli, Manu Kone, Bryan Cristante, Wesley — Matias Soule, Paulo Dybala — Donyell Malen.
Absentees: Devyne Rensch (injury), Evan Ndicka and Lorenzo Pellegrini (both doubts).
Form and Line-up Atalanta
Atalanta began their league campaign with a 2:1 home win over Sassuolo and narrowly beat Bologna 1:0 in the latest round. They played four competitive matches from 20 to 31 August, including Conference League qualifying, but had four full days to prepare before travelling to Rome.
Key numbers:
Atalanta are unbeaten in four consecutive matches.
Over 2.5 goals have landed in five of their previous seven matches.
Fewer than four yellow cards have been shown in nine consecutive matches.
Probable Atalanta line-up (4-3-3): Marco Carnesecchi — Davide Zappacosta, Odilon Kossounou, Giorgio Scalvini, Sead Kolasinac — Mario Pasalic, Gianluca Gaetano, Ederson — Charles De Ketelaere, Gianluca Scamacca, Giacomo Raspadori.
Absentees: Thomas Kristensen, Isak Hien and Kamaldeen Sulemana (all injured).
Team chances
Roma to win are available at 1.72; the fair odds are 1.80, with a probability of 55.4%. The draw is available at 3.80, with fair odds of 3.98 and a probability of 25.1%, while Atalanta to win are available at 4.90, with 5.14 and 19.5% respectively.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Roma to win | 1.72 | 1.80 | 55.4% |
Draw | 3.80 | 3.98 | 25.1% |
Atalanta to win | 4.90 | 5.14 | 19.5% |
Total goals prediction
On the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals are available at 1.85 and Over 2.5 goals at 1.95, indicating almost equal expectations with a slight edge for the lower total. On the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.32 are clearly favoured, while Over 3.5 goals are available at 3.10.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.85 | 1.95 |
3.5 | 1.32 | 3.10 |
Handicap prediction
Roma (-1.5) at 2.90 are available at longer odds than Atalanta (+1.5) at 1.35. On the one-goal line, Roma (-1) are offered at 2.25 and Atalanta (+1) at 1.65. Roma Draw No Bet at 1.27 are clearly favoured over Atalanta Draw No Bet at 3.40.
Home | Handicap | Away |
2.90 | -1.5 | — |
— | 1.5 | 1.35 |
2.25 | -1 | — |
— | 1 | 1.65 |
1.27 | 0 | 3.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
The market is almost even: Both teams to score - Yes is available at 1.90 and Both teams to score - No at 1.85. There is a slight edge for the outcome in which at least one team does not score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.90 |
No | 1.85 |
Double chance prediction
1X at 1.20 is the most likely double-chance outcome, with 12 available at 1.30. X2 is offered at 2.15, so a scenario without a Roma win is rated considerably less likely.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.20 | 1.30 | 2.15 |
Team total prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team totals: Roma — 1.5 goals, Atalanta — 0.5 goals.
Roma team total
Roma team total: Under 0.5 goals are available at 4.70 versus Over 0.5 goals at 1.14, while Under 1 goal is available at 3.40 versus Over 1 goal at 1.27. On the 1.5-goal line, the odds are almost even: Under 1.5 goals at 1.90 and Over 1.5 goals at 1.85. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals are available at 1.45 and Over 2 goals at 2.65.
Under | Team total | Over |
4.70 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
3.40 | 1 | 1.27 |
1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
1.45 | 2 | 2.65 |
Atalanta team total
Atalanta team total: Under 0.5 goals at 2.25 are available at longer odds than Over 0.5 goals at 1.60. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is available at 1.50 and Over 1 goal at 2.50; on the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals are offered at 1.25, while Over 1.5 goals are available at 3.70.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.25 | 0.5 | 1.60 |
1.50 | 1 | 2.50 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 3.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Andrea Colombo (Italy)
Matches — 15 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 4.4;
Matches with red cards — 0 out of 15;
Matches with penalties — 4 out of 15.
