Odds overview
AS Roma are clear favourites at 1.43 to win, while the draw and a Genoa win are available at around 4.70 and 7.40. In the 2.5-goal market, Over 2.5 at 1.70 is favoured over Under 2.5 at 2.15. For handicaps, AS Roma (-1.5) are at 2.15 and Genoa (+1.5) at 1.70.
Why AS Roma are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a clear edge: an AS Roma win is offered at 1.43, the draw at 4.70 and a Genoa win at 7.40.
• League position: after six rounds, AS Roma are third in Serie A with 14 points. They have scored 14 goals and conceded just three — the fewest in the league.
• The visitors' low scoring rate: Genoa average just 0.83 goals per game, the second-lowest figure in the league.
• Head-to-head record: AS Roma have won eight of the last 10 meetings at the Stadio Olimpico. The other two ended in draws.
Form and Line-up AS Roma
AS Roma are highly active in attack. They create more chances than any other side, averaging 2.87 xG per match. Their main driving force is the partnership between Paulo Dybala and Donyell Malen: the Argentinian provides the assists (four), while the Dutchman scores the goals (six). Malen, though, cannot play against Genoa after losing his composure and being sent off in the previous round against Como. Santiago Castro, who has yet to score this season, is expected to replace him up front.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- AS Roma's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in nine of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
- AS Roma have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in nine of their last 10 home league matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Pierluigi Gollini, Gianluca Mancini, Evan N'Dicka, Mario Hermoso, Nahuel Molina, Marten de Roon, Manu Koné, Wesley, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Paulo Dybala, Santiago Castro
Absentees: Donyell Malen (suspended), Mile Svilar and Bryan Cristante (injured); Manu Koné is doubtful
Form and Line-up Genoa
Genoa secured their first Serie A win of the season only in the sixth round, after the international break, beating Fiorentina 2:1 at home. Before that, they lost 1:2 to Parma and drew 1:1 with Frosinone. Those results leave them 17th, just above the relegation zone. At least Daniele De Rossi's side had a full week to prepare, unlike AS Roma, who faced Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League in midweek (3:4).
- Genoa have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in eight of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Genoa have received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in nine of their last 10 away league matches.
- Genoa have had fewer than 13.5 shots, including blocked efforts, in nine of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Justin Bijlow, Kingsley Ehizibue, Cody Drameh, Leo Østigård, Johan Vásquez, Hamed Traorè, Morten Frendrup, Mikael Ellertsson, Junior Messias, Stephan El Shaarawy, Milutin Osmajić
Absentees: Lorenzo Colombo, Sebastian Otoa, Elias Havel, Ethan Meichtry and Djibril Sow (injured); Alex Amorim is doubtful
Each team's chances
An AS Roma win is offered at 1.43, with fair odds of 1.50 and a 66.8% probability. The draw is at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.92 and a 20.3% probability; the corresponding figures for a Genoa win are 7.40, 7.75 and 12.9%.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 1.43 | 1.50 | 66.8% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.92 | 20.3% |
| Genoa win | 7.40 | 7.75 | 12.9% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is at 2.15 and Over 2.5 at 1.70, making at least three goals the favoured outcome. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, Under 3.5 at 1.45 is considerably shorter than Over 3.5 at 2.60.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.45 | 2.60 |
Handicap analysis
AS Roma (-1.5) are at 2.15 and Genoa (+1.5) at 1.70. At the one-goal line, AS Roma (-1) are at 1.65 and Genoa (+1) at 2.20. With a zero handicap, AS Roma (0) are at 1.12 and Genoa (0) at 5.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.70 | |
| 1.65 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.20 | |
| 1.12 | 0 | 5.00 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.90, while No is at 1.85. The odds are almost identical, with a slight edge for at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.90 |
| No | 1.85 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: AS Roma — 2 goals; Genoa — 0.5 goals.
AS Roma team total goals
For AS Roma's team total, Under 0.5 is at 7.50 and Over 0.5 at 1.05; Under 1.5 is at 2.50 and Over 1.5 at 1.50. At the two-goal line, Under 2 is at 1.85 and Over 2 at 1.90; at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is at 1.48 and Over 2.5 at 2.55.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.50 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.50 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.85 | 2 | 1.90 |
| 1.48 | 2.5 | 2.55 |
Genoa team total goals
For Genoa's team total, Under 0.5 is offered at 2.00 and Over 0.5 at 1.75; Under 1 is at 1.37 and Over 1 at 2.85. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is at 1.20, while Over 1.5 is at 4.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 0.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.37 | 1 | 2.85 |
| 1.20 | 1.5 | 4.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Rosario Abisso (Italy)
Matches — 11 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.6;
Matches with a red card — 5 of 11;
Matches with a penalty — 1 of 11.
