Odds overview
AC Milan are clear favourites: an AC Milan win is offered at 1.80, compared with 4.40 for Sassuolo and 3.80 for the draw. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.08. At a handicap of 0, AC Milan at 1.33 are considered much more likely to win than Sassuolo at 3.05.
Why AC Milan are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: an AC Milan win is offered at 1.80, with an estimated 53.1% probability excluding the margin. Sassuolo are available at 4.40 (21.7%), while the draw is 3.80 (25.2%).
• AC Milan have averaged two goals per game at the start of the season, ranking third in Serie A on that measure.
• AC Milan's squad is valued at more than twice as much as Sassuolo's — €503 million to €219 million.
• Sassuolo have conceded the most goals of any club in the top half of the table: nine in five rounds.
Form and Line-up Sassuolo
In their most recent home game, Sassuolo scored three against Juventus (3:2) despite generating just 0.96 xG. Alberto Aquilani's side have a 100% record at the Mapei Stadium, having also beaten Torino (2:1). Their final game before the international break ended badly — a 1:2 defeat to Monza — but it was away from home.
- All five of Sassuolo's opening Serie A matches in the 2026/27 season have finished with Over 2.5 goals.
- Sassuolo have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 home matches in Serie A.
- Four of Sassuolo's five Serie A matches in the 2026/27 season have featured fewer than 4.5 goals.
Probable Sassuolo line-up (4-3-3): Arijanet Muric, Simone Cinquegrano, Duje Ćaleta-Car, Fedde Leysen, Josh Doig, Kristian Thorstvedt, Nemanja Matić, Vasilije Adžić, Domenico Berardi, Sebastiano Esposito, Armand Laurienté
Absentees: Cristian Volpato, Daniel Boloca, Ismaël Koné, Jay Idzes, Yeferson Paz (injured)
Form and Line-up AC Milan
AC Milan comfortably beat Lecce (3:0), showing strong finishing efficiency from 2.48 xG. Before that, away to Lazio, AC Milan faced pressure from their opponents with Luka Modrić and Adrien Rabiot paired in midfield, but improved in attack in the second half after Diego Moreira came on and scored twice in three minutes. AC Milan are only two points behind leaders Roma.
- All five of AC Milan's Serie A matches in the 2026/27 season have featured Over 1.5 goals.
- Four of AC Milan's five Serie A matches in the 2026/27 season have featured fewer than 3.5 goals.
- No more than three goals have been scored in 9 of AC Milan's last 10 away matches in Serie A.
Probable AC Milan line-up (4-4-1-1): Mike Maignan, Mario Gila, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlović, Davide Bartesaghi, Samuel Chukwueze, Luka Modrić, Adrien Rabiot, Christian Pulisic, Diego Moreira, Gonçalo Ramos
Absentees: Alexis Saelemaekers, Pervis Estupiñán (injured)
The teams' chances
An AC Milan win is the leading outcome: odds of 1.80, fair odds of 1.88 and a 53.1% probability. For the draw, the respective figures are 3.80, 3.97 and 25.2%; for a Sassuolo win, they are 4.40, 4.60 and 21.7%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability excluding margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo win | 4.40 | 4.60 | 21.7% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.97 | 25.2% |
| AC Milan win | 1.80 | 1.88 | 53.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.75 is favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.08. At 3.5 goals, by contrast, the market leans much more towards Under 3.5 goals at 1.42 than Over 3.5 goals at 2.65.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.08 | 1.75 |
| 3.5 | 1.42 | 2.65 |
Handicap prediction
Sassuolo (-1.5) are available at 7.70, compared with 2.80 for AC Milan (-1.5). At the +1.5 line, the odds are 1.38 for Sassuolo (+1.5) and 1.04 for AC Milan (+1.5); at -1, they are 6.70 for Sassuolo (-1) and 2.35 for AC Milan (-1). At +1, Sassuolo (+1) are offered at 1.60 and AC Milan (+1) at 1.06, while at 0 the odds are 3.05 for Sassuolo (0) and 1.33 for AC Milan (0).
| Home team | Handicap | Away team |
|---|---|---|
| 7.70 | -1.5 | 2.80 |
| 1.38 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 6.70 | -1 | 2.35 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 1.06 |
| 3.05 | 0 | 1.33 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.68 is favoured over Both teams to score — No at 2.12: the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.68 |
| No | 2.12 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Sassuolo — 1 goal; AC Milan — 1.5 goals.
Sassuolo team total goals
For Sassuolo's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.45 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.65. At the 1-goal line, the odds are close: Under 1 goal is 1.75 and Over 1 goal is 2.00. At 1.5 goals, the market favours Under 1.5 goals at 1.35 over Over 1.5 goals at 3.00.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.65 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.75 | 1 | 2.00 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 3.00 |
AC Milan team total goals
For AC Milan's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.12 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 5.00, as is Over 1 goal at 1.25 over Under 1 goal at 3.65. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is 1.77 against 2.00 for Under 1.5 goals; at 2 goals, Under 2 goals at 1.50 is favoured over Over 2 goals at 2.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 0.5 | 1.12 |
| 3.65 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.77 |
| 1.50 | 2 | 2.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Francesco Fourneau (Italy)
Matches – 14 (Serie A, 2025/26, 2026/27);
Average fouls per match – 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellow cards) – 4;
Matches with a red card – 0 of 14;
Matches with a penalty – 4 of 14.
