Odds overview
Toulouse are favourites: a home win at 1.75 is considerably more likely than a draw at 3.80 or an away win at 4.80. The main 2.5-goal total offers equal odds of 1.90. In the handicap market, Toulouse Draw No Bet at 1.30 is quoted considerably shorter than Le Havre Draw No Bet at 3.20.
Why Toulouse are favourites for the match
The bookmakers favour the home side: Toulouse to win is available at 1.75, Le Havre to win at 4.80, while the draw is offered at 3.80.
• Le Havre have made a poor start to the season: after four rounds, they have collected only two points and sit 16th in the table.
• Toulouse try to take control at home: they have had more total shots, including blocked efforts, than their opponents in 8 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
• Le Havre regularly struggle away from home: in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches, they have failed to outscore their opponents.
Form and Line-up Toulouse
In their previous Ligue 1 matches, Toulouse lost to Lille (0:1), drew with Brest (2:2) and lost to Lyon (0:2). In their most recent match against Lorient, Toulouse actively sought opportunities in attack and had 13 shots.
The team's attacking figures remain low at the start of the season: in the pre-match league snapshot, Toulouse are averaging 1.0 goal per game and rank third from bottom among the 18 participants in this metric.
- Toulouse have committed at least 12 fouls in 9 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- There have been a maximum of 3 offsides in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
- At least 3 yellow cards have been shown in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Mathys Niflore, Rafik Messali, Seny Koumbassa, Mark McKenzie, Crist Tappe, Cristian Casseres Jr., Niklas Schmidt, Santiago Hidalgo, Thomas Jorgensen, Ilyes Azizi, Jacen Russell-Rowe
Form and Line-up Le Havre
Earlier in the league campaign, Le Havre lost to Brest (1:2) and Monaco (0:1), and drew with Lyon (1:1). Against Angers, however, they showed attacking intent with 16 shots.
The visitors' overall scoring record leaves much to be desired: Le Havre are averaging 0.5 goals per game at the start of the season, while their xG figure of 1.17 places them second from bottom in the league.
- Le Havre have taken no more than 5 corners in 8 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Le Havre have committed at least 12 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 matches.
- There have been at least 3 offsides in 8 of Le Havre's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Gautier Gallon, D. Uziad, Ahmed Touba, Abdoulaye Seko, Elias Jelert, Amir Richardson, Simon Ebonog, Koki Mizuta, Mbwana Samatta, Josh Maja, Sota Nakamura
Goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi is injured and will not play in the match. Free agent Arnaud Bodart was signed for his position on 16 September.
Team chances
A home win is quoted at 1.75, with fair odds of 1.83 and a probability of 54.8%; the corresponding figures for the draw are 3.80, 3.96 and 25.2%. An away win is available at 4.80, with fair odds of 5.01 and a 20.0% probability, making an away success the least expected outcome.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse win | 1.75 | 1.83 | 54.8% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.96 | 25.2% |
| Le Havre win | 4.80 | 5.01 | 20.0% |
Total goals prediction
Equal odds of 1.90 are offered on Under 2.5 goals and Over 2.5 goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.35 is quoted considerably shorter than Over 3.5 goals at 2.95, indicating that a lower-scoring outcome relative to this line is more likely.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.90 | 1.90 |
| 3.5 | 1.35 | 2.95 |
Handicap prediction
Toulouse (-1.5) at 2.85 is quoted longer than Le Havre (+1.5) at 1.37. On the adjacent line, Toulouse (-1) is available at 2.30, while Le Havre (+1) is at 1.62. At a handicap of 0, Toulouse Draw No Bet at 1.30 is considerably more favoured in the odds than Le Havre Draw No Bet at 3.20.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.37 | |
| 2.30 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.62 | |
| 1.30 | 0 | 3.20 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.82, slightly shorter than Both teams to score — No at 1.95. The market only marginally favours both teams scoring; the No option means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.82 |
| No | 1.95 |
Double chance forecast
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Toulouse — 1.5 goals; Le Havre — 0.5 goals.
Toulouse team total
Toulouse team total: Under 0.5 goals at 4.90 is quoted considerably longer than Over 0.5 goals at 1.13, while at the line of 1, Under 1 goal at 3.50 is longer than Over 1 goal at 1.25. At the 1.5-goal mark, the odds are close: Under 1.5 goals — 1.93; Over 1.5 goals — 1.82. At the line of 2, Under 2 goals at 1.43 is quoted considerably shorter than Over 2 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | 0.5 | 1.13 |
| 3.50 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.93 | 1.5 | 1.82 |
| 1.43 | 2 | 2.65 |
Le Havre team total
Le Havre team total: Under 0.5 goals at 2.35 is quoted longer than Over 0.5 goals at 1.55. At the line of 1, the relationship is reversed: Under 1 goal — 1.55; Over 1 goal — 2.35. At the 1.5-goal mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.25 is considerably shorter than Over 1.5 goals at 3.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Hakim Ben El Hadj (France)
Matches — 13 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match, including second yellows — 3.8;
Matches with red cards — 5 of 13;
Matches with penalties — 4 of 13.
