Odds overview
Lille are the 1X2 favourites: the away win is available at 2.15, while the home win and draw are quoted at around 3.50 and 3.40. Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is preferred to Over 2.5 goals at 2.02 in the main total market. In the main handicap market, Lille Draw No Bet at 1.55 looks more likely than Toulouse Draw No Bet at 2.45.
Why Lille are favourites for the match
Bookmakers favour the visitors: Lille to win is available at 2.15, while Toulouse's victory is quoted at 3.50 and the draw at 3.40.
- Lille have begun the league campaign unbeaten under Davide Ancelotti and are third with 4 points after two rounds.
- Toulouse are yet to win this season and lost their only home match 0:2 to Lyon.
Toulouse form and line-up
Toulouse have had a difficult start to the season: after a home defeat to Lyon, they drew 2:2 away to Brest, having led during the match but conceded in stoppage time.
One notable squad change is the rapid introduction of new signing Thomas Jorgensen into the starting line-up, as he has immediately established himself in the attacking unit. However, the team are still seeking balance in attack, registering a modest 2.0 shots on target per match.
Key numbers:
- In 9 of their last 10 home Ligue 1 matches, Toulouse have committed at least 12 fouls.
- In 9 of their last 10 home league matches, Toulouse's opponents have received at least 2 yellow cards.
- At least 25 fouls have been recorded in 8 of Toulouse's last 10 home Ligue 1 matches.
Probable Toulouse line-up (4-2-3-1): Guillaume Restes — Chris Tape — Rasmus Nicolaisen — Mark McKenzie — Ismail Diallo — Alexis Vossah — Cristian Casseres Jr. — Yann Gboho — Thomas Jorgensen — Julian Vignolo — Jacen Russell-Rowe
First-choice left-back Dayann Methalie left the team before the start of the season to join Sunderland.
Lille form and line-up
Lille began the league campaign with a 2:0 away win over Angers thanks to goals from Olivier Giroud and Tiago Santos, before drawing 2:2 with PSG after surrendering their lead at the very end.
The trip to Toulouse comes before the club's Champions League campaign begins, so the coaching staff will need to manage the players' workload ahead of the European matches.
Key numbers:
- In all of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Lille have committed no more than 13 fouls.
- In 9 of their last 10 away league matches, Lille's opponents have had no more than 4 shots on target.
- In 9 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 matches, Lille's opponents have scored no more than one goal.
Probable Lille line-up (4-2-3-1): Berke Ozer — Romain Perraud — Alexsandro — Nathan Ngoy — Tiago Santos — Nabil Bentaleb — Benjamin Andre — Felix Correia — Hakon Haraldsson — Ethan Mbappe — Olivier Giroud
Lille have Matias Fernandez-Pardo suspended and Hamza Igamane injured.
Team chances
According to the no-margin assessment, the away win has a 44.5% probability at odds of 2.15 and fair odds of 2.25. The draw is rated at 28.1%: 3.40 versus 3.55 in the no-margin assessment. The home win accounts for 27.3%, with odds of 3.50 and 3.66 respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse to win | 3.50 | 3.66 | 27.3% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.55 | 28.1% |
| Lille to win | 2.15 | 2.25 | 44.5% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.80 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.02, which slightly favours a lower-scoring scenario. The edge is more pronounced on the 3.5-goal line: Under 3.5 goals is at 1.30 and Over 3.5 goals at 3.20.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.02 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.20 |
Handicap prediction
Lille (-1.5) at 3.85 is rated more likely than Toulouse (-1.5) at 6.50. On the 1.5 handicap, the odds are shorter for Lille (+1.5) — 1.06 versus 1.22 for Toulouse (+1.5). Lille (-1) is available at 3.10 and Toulouse (-1) at 5.70; on the 1-goal line, Lille (+1) is available at 1.09 and Toulouse (+1) at 1.32. On the 0 handicap, Lille Draw No Bet at 1.55 is preferred to Toulouse Draw No Bet at 2.45.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.50 | -1.5 | 3.85 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.70 | -1 | 3.10 |
| 1.32 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.45 | 0 | 1.55 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.78, while Both teams to score — No is at 1.98: the market slightly more often expects both teams to score, although the latter option means that at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.78 |
| No | 1.98 |
Double chance prediction
X2 has the lowest odds at 1.33, followed closely by 12 at 1.35, while 1X is available at 1.72. This more strongly supports an outcome in which Toulouse do not win.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
| 1.72 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Toulouse — 1 goal; Lille — 1.5 goals.
Toulouse team total
Toulouse team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 is considerably more likely than Under 0.5 goals at 2.70. On the 1-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1 goal at 1.85 and Over 1 goal at 1.90. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals has the shorter odds — 1.35 versus 2.95 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.85 | 1 | 1.90 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Lille team total
Lille team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.20 is preferred to Under 0.5 goals at 3.95, and Over 1 goal at 1.45 to Under 1 goal at 2.65. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals has the shorter odds — 1.65 versus 2.15 for Over 1.5 goals. On the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is at 1.25 and Over 2 goals at 3.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.95 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
| 2.65 | 1 | 1.45 |
| 1.65 | 1.5 | 2.15 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.50 |
Who will referee the match
Mathieu Vernis (France)
Matches – 16 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Fouls per match, average – 28;
Yellow cards per match, average (including second yellows) – 4.1;
Matches with a red card – 5 out of 16;
Matches with penalties – 5 out of 16.
