Odds overview
Lens are clear favourites to win at 1.82, while a Troyes win and a draw are available at around 4.05 and 4.00 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. For the zero handicap, Lens (0) at 1.37 are favoured over Troyes (0) at 2.85.
Why Lens are favourites
The bookmakers make the visitors favourites: a Lens win is available at 1.82, compared with 4.00 for a draw and 4.05 for a Troyes win.
- Lens are scoring well, averaging 1.83 goals per game, while Troyes concede an average of 2.17 goals per match.
- The hosts score just 0.67 goals per game — the lowest average in Ligue 1.
- Lens are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Troyes.
Form and Line-up Troyes
Troyes lost 0:2 at home to Olympique de Marseille in the previous round, conceding the second goal from a penalty in stoppage time. It was the hosts' fourth successive defeat, following losses to Strasbourg (2:6), Lille (0:2) and Angers (0:2).
- Troyes have failed to win any of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Troyes have conceded in six consecutive matches.
- Troyes have conceded first in 4 of their last 5 games.
Probable Troyes line-up (4-2-3-1): Patrick Beach, Lucas Maronnier, Adrien Monfray, Michell Díaz, Paolo Gozzi, Mouhamed Diop, Karim Dermane, Kandet Diawara, Antoine Mille, Iron Gomis, Jérémy Le Douaron.
Absentees: Ismaël Boura, Yacouba Kone, Anis Ouzenadji, Yvann Titi (all injured).
Form and Line-up Lens
The Blood and Gold have been in a slump: after three defeats in four Ligue 1 matches, they finally beat Lyon (2:1). Lens then lost to Sporting (0:2) in the UEFA Champions League, although they had edged past Slavia Prague (3:2) in the opening round.
- Lens have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in each of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Lens have registered more than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Lens have taken more than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
Probable Lens line-up (3-4-2-1): Robin Risser, Kyllian Antonio, Samson Baidoo, Ismaëlo Ganiou, Rubén Aguilar, Michaël Cuisance, Yassine Titraoui, Michal Skoras, Florian Thauvin, Florian Sotoka, Odsonne Edouard.
Absentees: Jhoanner Chávez, Jonathan Gradit, Maik Nawrocki, Abdallah Sima (all injured), Matthieu Udol (suspended).
The teams' chances
A Troyes win is offered at 4.05, with fair odds of 4.24 and a probability of 23.6%; a draw has odds of 4.00, fair odds of 4.19 and a probability of 23.9%. A Lens win is quoted at 1.82, with fair odds of 1.90 and a probability of 52.5%, confirming their status as favourites.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes win | 4.05 | 4.24 | 23.6% |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.19 | 23.9% |
| Lens win | 1.82 | 1.90 | 52.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.60 is clearly favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.35. At the 3.5-goal line, by contrast, Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 has shorter odds than Over 3.5 goals at 2.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Lens (-1.5) at 2.85 have shorter odds than Troyes (-1.5) at 6.70. With a +1.5 handicap, Lens (+1.5) at 1.06 are favoured over Troyes (+1.5) at 1.37; with +1, Lens (+1) are available at 1.08 against 1.60 for Troyes (+1). At a zero handicap, Lens (0) at 1.37 are markedly shorter than Troyes (0) at 2.85.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.70 | -1.5 | 2.85 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 1.06 |
| 5.90 | -1 | 2.35 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 1.08 |
| 2.85 | 0 | 1.37 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.55 has shorter odds than Both teams to score — No at 2.35, meaning the market considers goals from both sides more likely than a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.35 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
91/100
|
11/50
|
1/4
|
| 888sport |
19/20
|
1/4
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team total goals lines: Troyes — 1 goal; Lens — 1.5 goals.
Troyes team total goals
Troyes team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.35 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.95. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.78 is slightly favoured over Under 1 at 1.98, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 at 1.40 is markedly shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.75.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.98 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.40 | 1.5 | 2.75 |
Lens team total goals
Lens team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.09 and Over 1 at 1.20 are clear favourites over Under 0.5 at 5.70 and Under 1 at 4.15. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 at 1.70 is favoured over Under 1.5 at 2.10, while at the 2-goal line, Under 2 at 1.58 has shorter odds than Over 2 at 2.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.70 | 0.5 | 1.09 |
| 4.15 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.10 | 1.5 | 1.70 |
| 1.58 | 2 | 2.30 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Hakim Ben El Hadj (France)
Matches — 14 (Ligue 1, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 5 of 14;
Matches with a penalty — 6 of 14.
