Odds overview
Olympique de Marseille are favourites to win at 1.88, while a Troyes win and a draw are both around 3.85–3.90. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.60 against 2.35 for Under 2.5, suggesting a high-scoring match. Troyes Draw No Bet (0) is offered at 2.70, compared with 1.40 for Olympique de Marseille Draw No Bet (0) — another indication that the visitors have the edge.
Why Olympique de Marseille are favourites
Bookmakers favour the visitors: an Olympique de Marseille win is offered at 1.88 (around a 50.8% probability without the margin), while Troyes are available at 3.85 and the draw at 3.90.
• The hosts are highly vulnerable in defence: Troyes conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game in the first 5 rounds, the second-worst record in Ligue 1.
• Olympique de Marseille average 1.4 goals per league match, well ahead of Troyes, who score just 0.8 per game.
Form and Line-up Troyes
In Ligue 1, Troyes lost to Angers (0:2), Lille (0:2) and Strasbourg (2:6), recording their only win against Lorient (2:1). They also drew a friendly with Dijon (2:2) in early October.
- Troyes have failed to win any of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Troyes have attempted fewer than 13.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
- Troyes have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 home matches.
Probable Troyes line-up (4-2-3-1): Pape Bèye, Lucas Maronnier, Adrien Monfray, Junior Diaz, Abdoulaye Ouzennadji, Antoine Mille, Mouhamed Diop, Kilian Dong Diawara, Youssouf Karim, Mathis Picard, Jérémy Le Douaron
Merwan Ifnaoui, Paolo Gozzi, Yvann Titi and Ismaël Boura are unavailable through injury.
Form and Line-up Olympique de Marseille
In the league, Olympique de Marseille lost to Paris Saint-Germain (1:2), while in European competition they were beaten by Beşiktaş (1:4). The side from Provence also lost a friendly to Montpellier HSC (0:1) in early October.
The visitors have made mistakes in defence, though, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game in the opening stretch of Ligue 1.
- Olympique de Marseille have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Olympique de Marseille's opponents have taken fewer than 5.5 corners in 9 of Marseille's last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
- Olympique de Marseille have received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 Ligue 1 away matches.
Probable Olympique de Marseille line-up (4-2-3-1): Jeffrey de Lange, Ulisses Garcia, Conrad Egan-Riley, Nayef Aguerd, Emerson, Tochukwu Nnadi, Nouhoum Kamissoko, Keyliane Abdallah, Angel Gomes, Igor Paixão, Neal Maupay
Timothy Weah will miss the match through suspension, while Derek Cornelius is out injured. Pierre-Emile Højbjerg, Amine Gouiri and Amine Harit are doubtful.
Teams' chances
An Olympique de Marseille win is offered at 1.88, with fair odds of 1.97 and a probability of 50.8%. The corresponding figures are 3.85, 4.04 and 24.8% for a Troyes win, and 3.90, 4.09 and 24.5% for a draw. Olympique de Marseille have the highest chance of winning, while a Troyes win and a draw are rated similarly.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Troyes win | 3.85 | 4.04 | 24.8% |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.09 | 24.5% |
| Olympique de Marseille win | 1.88 | 1.97 | 50.8% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.60, compared with 2.35 for Under 2.5. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.55, while Over 3.5 is offered at 2.35. The market sees at least three goals as more likely than four or more.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.35 | 1.60 |
| 3.5 | 1.55 | 2.35 |
Handicap prediction
Troyes (-1.5) is available at 6.30, compared with 3.00 for Olympique de Marseille (-1.5), while Troyes (+1.5) is offered at 1.35 against 1.07 for Olympique de Marseille (+1.5). At the -1 handicap line, the odds are 5.60 for Troyes (-1) and 2.50 for Olympique de Marseille (-1); at the +1 line, they are 1.55 for Troyes (+1) and 1.09 for Olympique de Marseille (+1). Even at a zero handicap, Olympique de Marseille Draw No Bet (0) at 1.40 is clearly favoured over Troyes Draw No Bet (0) at 2.70.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 6.30 | -1.5 | 3.00 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 1.07 |
| 5.60 | -1 | 2.50 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 1.09 |
| 2.70 | 0 | 1.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – Yes is offered at 1.55, while Both teams to score – No is available at 2.40. The shorter odds on Yes suggest that goals from both sides are considered more likely than at least one team failing to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.55 |
| No | 2.40 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
83/100
|
1/4
|
1/4
|
| 888sport |
83/100
|
1/4
|
29/100
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: Troyes at 1 goal and Olympique de Marseille at 1.5 goals.
Troyes team total goals
For Troyes team goals, Over 0.5 is offered at 1.32 against 3.10 for Under 0.5; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is available at 1.73 and Under 1 at 2.05. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.42, while Over 1.5 is offered at 2.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
| 2.05 | 1 | 1.73 |
| 1.42 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Olympique de Marseille team total goals
For Olympique de Marseille team goals, Over 0.5 is available at 1.10 against 5.50 for Under 0.5, while Over 1 is offered at 1.22 against 3.85 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 is available at 1.75 and Under 1.5 at 2.03; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.55 against 2.35 for Over 2.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.50 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 3.85 | 1 | 1.22 |
| 2.03 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.55 | 2 | 2.35 |
