Odds overview
Italy are slight favourites: an Italy win is available at 2.50, compared with 2.80 for Turkey, while the draw is 3.40. The odds for the 2.5-goal total are almost even: Under 2.5 is 1.88 and Over 2.5 is 1.92. On the handicap line of 0, Italy Draw No Bet is slightly shorter at 1.80 than Turkey Draw No Bet at 2.00.
Why there is no clear favourite
Bookmakers give the visitors a slight edge: Italy are 2.50 to win, the draw is 3.40, and a Turkey win is 2.80.
• Italy enter this international window with a refreshed squad: Roberto Mancini, back as head coach, has called up 34 players, including nine newcomers.
• The match in Bursa will be the visitors' second Nations League game in three days, following their meeting with Belgium. That will require rotation during a congested run of four matches in 11 days.
Form and Line-up Turkey
Turkey lost 0:2 to Australia in their June World Cup match, although by every measure they should have won: Vincenzo Montella's side had 71% possession, took 30 shots and put 8 on target.
- Turkey's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- There have been fewer than 3.5 first-half goals in all of Turkey's last 10 matches.
- Under 4.5 goals has landed in 8 of Turkey's last 10 matches in all competitions.
Probable Turkey line-up (4-2-3-1): Uğurcan Çakır, Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Abdülkerim Bardakcı, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, İsmail Yüksek, Salih Özcan, Arda Güler, İrfan Can Kahveci, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Barış Alper Yılmaz
Unavailable: Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Kenan Yıldız, Mert Müldür, Orkun Kökçü (injured)
Form and Line-up Italy
Italy did not take part in this summer's World Cup, so a change of head coach was only natural. Gennaro Gattuso left his post, interim coach Silvio Baldini returned to coaching the youth national team, and Roberto Mancini took charge, having previously led the Squadra Azzurra from 2018 to 2023.
Italy have been restrained and disciplined away from home: they have not been beaten on offsides in 9 of their last 10 away matches, and have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in 8 of 10.
- Italy have taken more than 3.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Italy's opponents have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- More than 7.5 corners have been taken in 8 of Italy's last 10 matches.
Probable Italy line-up (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Gianluca Mancini, Giorgio Scalvini, Riccardo Calafiori, Nicolò Barella, Alessandro Romano, Sandro Tonali, Nicolò Zaniolo, Moise Kean, Daniel Maldini
Unavailable: Bryan Cristante, Federico Dimarco, Filippo Mane (injured)
The teams' chances
An Italy win is offered at 2.50, with fair odds of 2.63 and a 38.0% probability; a Turkey win is 2.80, with fair odds of 2.94 and a 34.0% probability. The draw is quoted at 3.40, with fair odds of 3.57 and a 28.0% probability.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey win | 2.80 | 2.94 | 34.0% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.57 | 28.0% |
| Italy win | 2.50 | 2.63 | 38.0% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.88 and Over 2.5 at 1.92, indicating an almost even balance. On the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is considerably shorter at 1.33, while Over 3.5 is 3.00.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.88 | 1.92 |
| 3.5 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Handicap prediction
On the -1.5 handicap line, Italy (-1.5) at 4.70 are slightly shorter than Turkey (-1.5) at 5.20. With a +1 handicap, both sides have very short odds: Italy (+1) are 1.16 and Turkey (+1) are 1.20; on the +1.5 line, Italy (+1.5) are 1.11 and Turkey (+1.5) are 1.14. At a handicap of 0, Italy Draw No Bet are shorter at 1.80 than Turkey Draw No Bet at 2.00.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.20 | -1.5 | 4.70 |
| 1.14 | 1.5 | 1.11 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 4.15 |
| 1.20 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 2.00 | 0 | 1.80 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.70 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.10; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.70 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/25
|
3/10
|
11/25
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
3/10
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Turkey — 1 goal; Italy — 1.5 goals.
Turkey team goals
Turkey team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.30 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.25. On the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.67 compared with 2.13 for Under 1, while at 1.5 goals Under 1.5 has the shorter odds at 1.50, against 2.50 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.13 | 1 | 1.67 |
| 1.50 | 1.5 | 2.50 |
Italy team goals
Italy team goals: Over 0.5 at 1.25 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.55, while Over 1 is 1.50 compared with 2.50 for Under 1. On the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is shorter at 1.60 than Over 1.5 at 2.25; on the 2-goal line, Under 2 is quoted at 1.20 and Over 2 at 4.00.
| Under | Team goal total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.55 | 0.5 | 1.25 |
| 2.50 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1.5 | 2.25 |
| 1.20 | 2 | 4.00 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches — 14 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.3;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 14;
Matches with a penalty — 0 of 14.
