Match bet
The first leg raised more questions about Universidad Católica than Estudiantes. The Argentinians scored as early as the fourth minute, did not allow the Chileans a shot on target before the break, and straight after the restart Fabricio Perez missed an excellent chance to make it 2:0. The hosts then eased off the pressure and were punished in the 80th minute: Fernando Zampedri struck from distance, the ball deflected off Santiago Nunez and changed direction. The draw was clearly the more pleasing result for Universidad Católica given the nature of the game.
Zampedri himself will now also be absent after accumulating too many yellow cards. It is a huge loss: the forward has scored 18 of Universidad Católica's 40 goals in the Chilean league and four in this season's Copa Libertadores. Cristian Cuevas misses the match for the same reason. Clemente Montes is recovering from surgery and may return, but his fitness remains in doubt. One option for Daniel Garnero is to move Justo Giani into the centre of the attack, having already said he is ready to play as a number nine.
Universidad Católica's results since the break also offer little cause for calm. Their last five competitive matches have brought a 0:4 defeat to San Luis, a 3:3 draw with La Serena, a 0:3 defeat to Deportes Concepcion, a 2:0 win over Cobresal and that 1:1 draw with Estudiantes. Just one win in five matches, with problems both in defence and when trying to control games.
Estudiantes arrive in Santiago after a 4:0 derby win over Gimnasia. Eros Mancuso, Tiago Palacios, Joaquin Tobio Burgos and Alexis Castro scored. The scoreline should not be overstated, as their opponents had two players sent off. But it is difficult to imagine a better result emotionally before the biggest match of the week. Fernando Muslera remains in goal, while Joaquin Correa and Baltasar Rodriguez strengthened the squad ahead of the play-offs. Alexander Medina's side lost only one of six matches in the Copa Libertadores group stage.
Without Zampedri, Universidad Católica lose the player through whom they have resolved difficult situations in front of the opposition goal all season. Estudiantes already showed in La Plata that they can control this tie, and they do not even need to win in normal time for our bet. A draw means a refund, while a win delivers a full payout. Given the personnel situation, Estudiantes with a 0 handicap (Draw No Bet) looks safer than a straight away win.