Odds overview
Udinese Calcio are favourites at around 1.88 to win, while a draw is available at 3.55 and a Lecce win at 4.30. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.80 is shorter than Over 2.5 goals at 2.00. Udinese Calcio Draw No Bet at 1.35 is also markedly shorter than Lecce Draw No Bet at 2.90.
Why Udinese Calcio are favourites
Udinese Calcio are available at 1.88 to win, compared with 3.55 for a draw and 4.30 for a Lecce win.
- The hosts retain an attacking edge over their immediate neighbours in the table: after 6 rounds, Udinese Calcio have 4 points and a 9:13 goal difference, while Lecce have 6 points and a 6:12 goal difference.
- Lecce's defence regularly allows chances, with opponents generating an average of 2.28 xG per match — the second-worst figure.
- Udinese Calcio have lost just once to Lecce in their last six meetings, winning four times.
Form and Line-up Udinese Calcio
Udinese Calcio lost 1:2 away to Torino in the previous round. It was their fourth consecutive defeat, following losses to Lazio (1:2), Inter Milan (2:5) and Cagliari Calcio (0:1).
- Udinese Calcio have committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in each of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- Udinese Calcio have not had more offsides than their opponents in any of their last 10 Serie A matches.
- At least one second-half goal has been scored in all 6 of Udinese Calcio's Serie A matches in 2026/27.
Probable Udinese Calcio line-up (3-4-2-1): Maduka Okoye, Niccolò Bertola, Oumar Solet, Enzo Ebosse, Mergim Vojvoda, Lennon Miller, Jesper Karlström, Hassane Kamara, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Jurgen Ekkelenkamp, Keinan Davis.
Absentees: Nicolò Zaniolo, Idrissa Gueye, Vakoun Bayo and Jakub Piotrowski (all injured); James Abankwah (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Lecce
Lecce lost 1:2 at home to Bologna in the last round, conceding the decisive goal in the second half after a defensive positioning error. Before that, they also lost to AC Milan (0:3), generating just 0.21 xG.
- Lecce have committed more than 11.5 fouls in 9 of their last 10 away Serie A matches.
- Lecce's opponents have been caught offside more than 1.5 times in all 10 of their last Serie A matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 second-half goals have been scored in all 6 of Lecce's Serie A matches in 2026/27.
Probable Lecce line-up (4-3-3): Wladimiro Falcone, Danilo Veiga, Tiago Gabriel, Jamil Siebert, Antonino Gallo, Lassana Coulibaly, Oumar Ngom, Youssef Maleh, Santiago Pierotti, Willem Geubbels, Amar Fatah.
Absentees: Ivan Ilić, Medon Berisha and Nikola Štulić (all injured).
Teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Udinese Calcio a 50.8% chance of winning, with average odds of 1.88 and fair odds of 1.97. A draw is rated at 26.9%, with average odds of 3.55 against fair odds of 3.71. Lecce have a 22.2% chance of winning, with average odds of 4.30 and fair odds of 4.50.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese Calcio win | 1.88 | 1.97 | 50.8% |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.71 | 26.9% |
| Lecce win | 4.30 | 4.50 | 22.2% |
Total goals betting analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Under is shorter than Over: 1.80 against 2.00. The gap is much wider at 3.5 goals — Under is 1.30 and Over is 3.25.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.25 |
Handicap betting analysis
Udinese Calcio (-1.5) are available at 3.20, while Lecce (-1.5) are at 8.50. At the +1.5 handicap line, Udinese Calcio (+1.5) are shorter at 1.04, compared with 1.30 for Lecce (+1.5). At -1, the odds are 2.60 for Udinese Calcio (-1) and 7.20 for Lecce (-1); at +1, they are 1.05 and 1.50 respectively. With a handicap of 0, Udinese Calcio Draw No Bet is available at 1.35 and Lecce Draw No Bet at 2.90.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | -1.5 | 8.50 |
| 1.04 | 1.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.60 | -1 | 7.20 |
| 1.05 | 1 | 1.50 |
| 1.35 | 0 | 2.90 |
Both teams to score betting analysis
The market rates both options equally: Both teams to score — Yes is 1.88, and Both teams to score — No is also 1.88. The latter means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.88 |
| No | 1.88 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
1/5
|
29/100
|
91/100
|
| 888sport |
11/50
|
3/10
|
17/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting analysis
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal lines: Udinese Calcio at 1.5 goals and Lecce at 1 goal.
Udinese Calcio team goals
For Udinese Calcio's team goals, Under 0.5 is 4.10 and Over 0.5 is 1.18; Under 1 is 3.05 and Over 1 is 1.33. At the 1.5-goal line, Under is available at 1.78 and Over at 1.98; at the 2-goal line, the odds are 1.35 and 3.00 respectively.
| Under | Team goal line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.10 | 0.5 | 1.18 |
| 3.05 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 1.78 | 1.5 | 1.98 |
| 1.35 | 2 | 3.00 |
Lecce team goals
For Lecce's team goals, Under 0.5 is available at 2.40 and Over 0.5 at 1.55. At the 1-goal line, the odds are 1.60 for Under and 2.30 for Over; at the 1.5-goal line, they are 1.28 and 3.35 respectively.
| Under | Team goal line | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 2.30 |
| 1.28 | 1.5 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Marco Guida (Italy)
Matches — 18 (Serie A, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.8;
Matches with a red card — 3 of 18;
Matches with a penalty — 7 of 18.
