Friendlies
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United States
NOT STARTED
03:00
4 October
Mexico
1
69/50
X
23/10
2
17/10

United States vs Mexico: prediction & betting odds 4 October 2026

Published: 2 October 2026 03:04

The United States and Mexico will meet in a friendly at the AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, on 4 October 2026 at 03:00.

The neighbours go into their meeting in contrasting moods. The hosts have won every match in this international window, while the visitors have had to settle for draws. We will see whether backing the Americans to win makes sense.

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Betting tip

The United States and Mexico faced one common opponent in late September: Peru. The Stars and Stripes beat them comfortably (4:1), while El Tri could only salvage a draw (1:1).

The United States are favourites for this match, but hardly overwhelming ones: a United States win is priced at around 2.30. Victories over Peru and Chile (4:2) have done little to inspire greater confidence. There is good reason for that. Peru and Chile finished in the bottom two places in CONMEBOL qualifying for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, at least six points behind eighth-placed Venezuela. Mauricio Pochettino's men clearly scored more than expected: their xG across those two matches was 4.17. Mexico simply will not allow them to average 17 shots per match as they did in those games.

Although Mexico failed to beat Peru, their other opponents were considerably stronger: Colombia. They are ranked 11th, immediately behind Mexico, so a draw is a perfectly acceptable result. Rafa Márquez's side allowed Los Cafeteros just five shots during the match, but one big chance and 0.65 xGA proved enough for Colombia to score their goal. Scoring against El Tri is generally no easy task. They have conceded in three consecutive games, but before that they kept four successive clean sheets. Across their last 10 matches in all competitions, Mexico kept six clean sheets, while their opponents scored no more than once in 9 of the 10.

The United States' eight goals in two matches should therefore not mislead anyone: that tally is an anomaly, with weak opponents at the other end of the pitch. In 6 of the previous 10 meetings, the Stars and Stripes scored no more than once against Mexico. My prediction: United States under 1.5 team goals.

Betting prediction
United States under 1.5 team goals
Cf
Odds
3/5
Bet here
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H2H: United States — Mexico

Friendlies 2019
7 September, 2019
United States
Mexico
0
3
CONCACAF Gold Cup 2019
7 July, 2019
Mexico
United States
1
0
Friendlies 2018
12 September, 2018
United States
Mexico
1
0
World Cup 2018 Qualification
11 June, 2017
Mexico
United States
1
1
11 November, 2016
United States
Mexico
1
2
Confederations Cup 2015
10 October, 2015
Mexico
United States
OT
3
2
1
1
Friendlies 2014-2015
15 April, 2015
United States
Mexico
2
0
Friendlies 2014
2 April, 2014
United States
Mexico
2
2
World Cup Qualifiers 2014
10 September, 2013
United States
Mexico
2
0
26 March, 2013
Mexico
United States
0
0
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Current season

Logo United States United States
Mexico Logo Mexico
0 GF per game 0
0 Corner Kicks 0
0 Yellow cards 0

United States vs Mexico Odds

1X2
DOUBLE CHANCE
OVER/UNDER
BTTS
TOTAL HOME GOALS
TOTAL AWAY GOALS
Bookie1X2
Alex Tarabrin
Alex Tarabrin
Betting Expert

Odds for upcoming matches

1 X 2
Under Over
19:45
1 47/100
X 39/10
2 28/5
Under 2.5 8/5
2.5
Over 2.5 1/2
19:45
1 57/100
X 18/5
2 9/2
Under 2.5 9/5
2.5
Over 2.5 23/50
19:45
1 44/25
X 13/5
2 29/20
Under 2.5 5/4
2.5
Over 2.5 16/25
15:00
1 89/100
X 23/10
2 37/10
Under 2.5 27/50
2.5
Over 2.5 3/2
17:00
1 4/1
X 11/4
2 73/100
Under 2.5 19/25
2.5
Over 2.5 53/50
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