Odds overview
Fiorentina are favourites: the away win is 2.30, while the home win is available at around 3.05 and the draw at 3.50. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 (1.80) is shorter than Under 2.5 (2.03). In the main handicap market, Fiorentina Draw No Bet at 1.68 is preferred to Venezia Draw No Bet at 2.20.
Why Fiorentina are favourites
A Fiorentina win is 2.30, the draw is 3.50 and a Venezia win is 3.05. The arguments for this assessment are:
Venezia have lost all three opening matches — to Lecce (0:2), Milan (0:2) and Frosinone (2:3).
Fiorentina have also begun with three defeats, but they came against Roma (0:4), Frosinone (0:3) and Torino (1:2) — generally stronger opponents. They also improved after half-time in their last match and even opened the scoring.
Fiorentina's squad is far stronger than Venezia's — valued at EUR 322 million against EUR 116 million.
Form and Line-up Venezia
After beating Modena (3:2) in the Coppa Italia, Venezia suffered four consecutive defeats, including a cup exit to Udinese (1:2) in the following round. However, the hosts have not been helpless — after two losses to Lecce (0:2) and Milan (0:2), they gave Frosinone (2:3) a real contest before conceding the decisive goal in the 83rd minute.
Key numbers:
Eight of Venezia's last 10 home Serie A matches featured no more than two goals.
Venezia scored one goal or fewer in eight of their last 10 home Serie A matches.
There were at least 26 fouls in nine of Venezia's last 10 home Serie A matches.
Probable Venezia line-up (3-5-2): Filip Stankovic — Joel Schingtienne, Richie Sagrado, Redouan Khalhal — Antoine Hainaut, Kike Perez, Gianluca Busio, Simon Sohm, Ridgeciano Haps — Albion Rrahmani, Akor Adams.
Absentees: Andrea Adorante, Armel Bella-Kotchap, Marin Sverko, Toma Basic (all injured), Bartol Franjic (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Fiorentina
Fiorentina began with a 4:1 Coppa Italia win over Benevento but have completely faltered in the league. The Viola lost without scoring to Roma (0:4) and Frosinone (0:3), as well as Torino (1:2), despite taking the lead before conceding twice in eight minutes. The defeat to Torino was Fabio Grosso's final match, with the familiar Paolo Vanoli replacing him.
Key numbers:
Fiorentina scored no more than once in nine of their last 10 Serie A matches.
No more than 10 corners were taken in all 10 of Fiorentina's last 10 away Serie A matches.
In nine of their last 10 away Serie A matches, Fiorentina had fewer than 13.5 shots including blocked attempts.
Probable Fiorentina line-up (4-3-3): David de Gea — Joao Mario, Radu Dragusin, Vieri, Victor Valdepenas — Nicolo Fagioli, Cher Ndour, Marco Brescianini — Franco Mastantuono, Mateo Pellegrino, Alieu Njie.
Absentees: Crist Inao Ulai (injured).
Team chances
Home win: average odds of 3.05, fair odds of 3.20 and a 31.3% probability. Draw: 3.50, fair odds of 3.67 and a 27.3% probability. Away win: 2.30, with fair odds of 2.41 and a 41.5% probability, the highest figure.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | No-margin probability |
Venezia to win | 3.05 | 3.20 | 31.3% |
Draw | 3.50 | 3.67 | 27.3% |
Fiorentina to win | 2.30 | 2.41 | 41.5% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 is available at 2.03 and Over 2.5 at 1.80, so the market leans more towards the higher-scoring option. At the 3.5 mark, Under 3.5 at 1.40 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 at 2.75.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 2.03 | 1.80 |
3.5 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Fiorentina (-1.5) at 4.20 is shorter than Venezia (-1.5) at 5.00. For the +1.5 handicap, the odds are almost equal: Fiorentina (+1.5) at 1.12 and Venezia (+1.5) at 1.17. At the -1 line, Fiorentina (-1) at 3.50 is preferred to Venezia (-1) at 4.40, while at the +1 handicap Fiorentina (+1) is 1.16 against 1.25 for Venezia (+1). In the Draw No Bet market, Fiorentina at 1.68 has shorter odds than Venezia at 2.20.
Home | Handicap | Away |
5.00 | -1.5 | 4.20 |
1.17 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
4.40 | -1 | 3.50 |
1.25 | 1 | 1.16 |
2.20 | 0 | 1.68 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is 1.65, while Both teams to score — No, meaning at least one team will not score, is 2.17. The market rates goals from both sides more highly.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 1.65 |
No | 2.17 |
Double chance prediction
The lowest odds are for 12 at 1.33. X2 is available at 1.40 and 1X at 1.63, so the option of the away side not winning is rated more cautiously.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.63 | 1.33 | 1.40 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Venezia — 1 goal, Fiorentina — 1.5 goals.
Venezia team total
Venezia team total: Under 0.5 is 3.15 and Over 0.5 is 1.30; at the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 2.20 and Over 1 is 1.63. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 at 1.53 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.45.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.15 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
2.20 | 1 | 1.63 |
1.53 | 1.5 | 2.45 |
Fiorentina team total
Fiorentina team total: Under 0.5 is available at 3.90 and Over 0.5 at 1.20; Under 1 is 2.65 and Over 1 is 1.42. At the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 at 1.70 is shorter than Over 1.5 at 2.10, while at the 2-goal mark Under 2 is 1.28 against 3.35 for Over 2.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.90 | 0.5 | 1.20 |
2.65 | 1 | 1.42 |
1.70 | 1.5 | 2.10 |
1.28 | 2 | 3.35 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Francesco Fourneau (Italy)
Matches — 13 (Serie A, 2025/26);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.1;
Matches with red cards — 0 out of 13;
Matches with penalties — 4 out of 13.
