Zverev is clearly the higher-class player, but the German has been starting matches inconsistently lately. That is enough for Atmane to compete in long sets: the Frenchman is comfortable on the local hard courts and reached the semi-finals here a year ago.
Zverev is the clear favourite here: world No. 3, the top seed and the 2021 Cincinnati champion. However, the way his matches have been going lately makes the over more appealing than a straightforward win bet. Since Wimbledon, the German has played two matches on North American hard courts — both went to 30 games. He lost to Tallon Griekspoor in Montreal (7:6, 2:6, 4:6), while in Cincinnati he only overcame Cameron Norrie after losing the first set (3:6, 6:3, 6:3).
Atmane does not look like an opponent Zverev should be expected to dispatch within an hour. The Frenchman has already risen to 45th in the rankings, and a year ago he reached the semi-finals in Cincinnati, knocking out Taylor Fritz and Holger Rune. On the current American swing, he is again competing with strong opponents: he beat Frances Tiafoe in Washington (4:6, 6:3, 6:4), Karen Khachanov in Montreal (6:4, 7:6), and Tomas Martin Etcheverry here (6:3, 7:6).
There is also a recent head-to-head test. Zverev beat Atmane in Madrid in April (6:3, 7:6) — 22 games in total, just one short of the required line. The German was serving for the match at 5:4 in the second set, but allowed the Frenchman to break back. On the faster courts in Ohio, left-hander Atmane's first serve should earn him even more quick points.
Zverev's recovery is another consideration. He finished his match against Norrie at 2:15 a.m. local time. That is not the ideal schedule before the next round, particularly after a demanding start to the North American swing.
Over 22.5 games does not require an upset. Three sets or two tight sets such as 7:6, 6:4 would be enough. Zverev is not dispatching these matches quickly at the moment, while Atmane can hold serve — that should be enough for 23 games here.
