Odds overview
Italy are clear favourites: an Italy win is available at 1.45, while the draw and a Turkey win are quoted at around 5.00 and 6.30. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 is considered considerably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.45. The handicap market favours Italy (-1) at 1.65 over Turkey (+1) at 2.15.
Why Italy are favourites
Bookmakers give the home side a clear advantage: an Italy win is offered at odds of 1.45, the draw at 5.00 and a Turkey win at 6.30.
• The teams' previous meeting on 28 September ended in a convincing 4:1 away win for Italy.
• Turkey have persistent defensive problems: having conceded an average of 2.67 goals per match, they are among the league's three most vulnerable teams by this measure.
Form and Line-up Italy
After their win over Turkey, Italy faced a difficult away trip to France and drew 1:1. The squad are undergoing a rebuild under Roberto Mancini: nine potential debutants have been called up for the current camp, and the coaching staff are gradually bringing younger players into matches alongside experienced leaders.
Italy have maintained strong defensive discipline at home in the UEFA Nations League: in 9 of their last 10 such matches, their opponents were caught offside no more than once.
- In 8 of Italy's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League, the two teams made no more than 25 shot attempts combined, including blocked shots.
- In 9 of Italy's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League, their opponents had no more than 4 shots on target.
- In 8 of their last 10 home matches in the competition, Italy received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards.
Probable Italy line-up (4-3-3): Gianluigi Donnarumma, Michael Kayode, Giorgio Scalvini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori, Davide Frattesi, Sandro Tonali, Nicolò Fagioli, Moise Kean, Francesco Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito
Federico Dimarco and Nicolò Zaniolo will be unavailable for Italy because of injuries.
Form and Line-up Turkey
Turkey are going through a difficult spell: during their 0:3 away defeat to Belgium, supporters put Vincenzo Montella under intense pressure, calling for his resignation after the second goal was conceded.
Even so, Turkey try to remain active in attack away from home in the UEFA Nations League: in 9 of their last 10 away matches in the competition, they matched or exceeded their opponents' total number of shot attempts.
- Turkey had more than 3.5 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- In 9 of Turkey's last 10 home matches in the UEFA Nations League, the combined number of shot attempts exceeded 23.5.
- Turkey matched or exceeded their opponents' corner count in all 10 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Turkey line-up (4-2-3-1): Uğurcan Çakır, Zeki Celik, Merih Demiral, Abdülkerim Bardakcı, Ferdi Kadıoğlu, İsmail Yüksek, Bartuğ Elmaz, Oğuz Aydın, Arda Güler, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Barış Alper Yılmaz
Kenan Yıldız, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Mert Müldür remain doubtful — their participation has not been officially confirmed ahead of the match.
Team chances
An Italy win at 1.45 corresponds to fair odds of 1.52 and a probability of 65.8%. The draw is available at 5.00, with fair odds of 5.24 and a probability of 19.1%; the corresponding figures for a Turkey win are 6.30, 6.60 and 15.1%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Italy win | 1.45 | 1.52 | 65.8% |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.24 | 19.1% |
| Turkey win | 6.30 | 6.60 | 15.1% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.50 has considerably shorter odds than Under 2.5 goals at 2.45. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.65 becomes the favourite over Over 3.5 goals at 2.25.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.45 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
Handicap prediction
Italy (-1.5) are available at 2.15, while Turkey (+1.5) are at 1.70. At the one-goal handicap line, Italy (-1) at 1.65 are favoured over Turkey (+1) at 2.15. With a zero handicap, Italy (0) are offered at 1.16 against Turkey (0) at 4.40.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.15 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.70 | |
| 1.65 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.15 | |
| 1.16 | 0 | 4.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.68 is considered more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.10; the latter means at least one team will fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.68 |
| No | 2.10 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
9/50
|
69/50
|
| William Hill |
3/25
|
9/50
|
17/10
|
| 888sport |
7/50
|
11/50
|
29/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Italy — 2 goals; Turkey — 0.5 goals.
Italy team total goals
For Italy's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.04 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 8.00. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals is available at 1.45 against Under 1.5 goals at 2.65; at 2 goals, Over 2 goals is at 1.75 and Under 2 goals at 2.00. At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.58 becomes the favourite over Over 2.5 goals at 2.30.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 8.00 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.65 | 1.5 | 1.45 |
| 2.00 | 2 | 1.75 |
| 1.58 | 2.5 | 2.30 |
Turkey team total goals
For Turkey's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.57 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.35. At the one-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.55 is favoured over Over 1 goal at 2.35; at the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.25 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 3.50.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 0.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.50 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Szymon Marciniak (Poland)
Matches — 12 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 2.8;
Matches with a red card — 2 out of 12;
Matches with a penalty — 5 out of 12.
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Alessandro Bastoni
Gianluca Mancini
Giovanni Di Lorenzo
Issa Doumbia
Matteo Ruggeri
Alessandro Gianni Romano
Gianluca Scamacca
Guglielmo Vicario
Michael Olabode Kayode
Riccardo Calafiori
Nicolò Fagioli
Davide Frattesi
Samuele Inácio Piá
Sandro Tonali
Sebastiano Esposito
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Uğurcan Çakır
Ozan Muhammed Kabak
Aral Şimşir
Ferdi Erenay Kadıoğlu
Salih Özcan
İrfan Kahveci
Altay Bayındır
Muhammed Şengezer
Merih Demiral
Demir Ege Tıknaz
