Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Northern Ireland are slight favourites: a home win is 2.55, compared with 2.90 for an away win, while the draw is 3.20. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is considered notably more likely than Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. For the handicap (0) market, Northern Ireland at 1.78 are favoured over Georgia at 2.03.
Why Northern Ireland are favourites
Bookmakers give the hosts a modest edge: Northern Ireland are 2.55 to win, the draw is 3.20, and a Georgia win is 2.90.
• Northern Ireland come into the match after beating Ukraine, having defended in an organised fashion despite their opponents' superiority in play.
• Georgia lost to Hungary in the previous round of the UEFA Nations League, complicating their position in the standings.
Form and Line-up Northern Ireland
In the pre-match UEFA Nations League figures, Northern Ireland are joint bottom for goals conceded to opponents (0.0). Meanwhile, in their last 10 home matches in the competition, Northern Ireland's opponents have never had more than 13.5 shot attempts in a game.
- In 9 of Northern Ireland's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches, their opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners.
- In 8 of Northern Ireland's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches, there were fewer than 9.5 corners in total.
- Northern Ireland received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Northern Ireland line-up (3-4-2-1): Pierce Charles, Brodie Spencer, Terry Devlin, Tom Atcheson, Ruairi McConville, Kieran Brown, Trai Hume, Shea Charles, Jamie Donley, Isaac Price, Kieran Morrison
Dan Ballard will miss the match through injury.
Form and Line-up Georgia
In the current tournament figures, Georgia are near the bottom for goals scored (0.0). In 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, the two teams combined for no more than 25.5 shot attempts.
- Georgia received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
- Georgia took more than 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- In 8 of Georgia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, there were more than 7.5 corners in total.
Probable Georgia line-up (3-4-1-2): Giorgi Mamardashvili, Lasha Dvali, Saba Goglichidze, Luka Lochoshvili, Otar Kiteishvili, Irakli Yegoian, Heorhiy Tsitaishvili, Otar Kakabadze, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Khvicha Kvarackhelija, Georges Mikautadze
The teams' chances
The margin-free estimate gives Northern Ireland a 37.4% chance of winning, with average odds of 2.55 and fair odds of 2.68. The draw is rated at 29.8% (3.20; 3.36), and a Georgia win at 32.9% (2.90; 3.04).
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Margin-free probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland win | 2.55 | 2.68 | 37.4% |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.36 | 29.8% |
| Georgia win | 2.90 | 3.04 | 32.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.65 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.25. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 goals at 1.70 is favoured over Under 2 goals at 2.07, while at 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals at 1.22 has a clear edge over Over 3.5 goals at 3.90.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.65 | 2.25 |
| 2 | 2.07 | 1.70 |
| 3.5 | 1.22 | 3.90 |
Handicap prediction
Northern Ireland (-1.5) at 5.10 have shorter odds than Georgia (-1.5) at 6.10. At the +1.5 handicap, Northern Ireland (+1.5) at 1.08 and Georgia (+1.5) at 1.12 are close; at the -1 line, Northern Ireland (-1) are 4.15 against Georgia (-1) at 5.10, while at the +1 line, Northern Ireland (+1) are 1.12 against Georgia (+1) at 1.17. Northern Ireland (0) at 1.78 are shorter than Georgia (0) at 2.03.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 5.10 | -1.5 | 6.10 |
| 1.08 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.15 | -1 | 5.10 |
| 1.12 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 1.78 | 0 | 2.03 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score – No at 1.82 has slightly shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 1.92: the more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.92 |
| No | 1.82 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
9/25
|
9/25
|
53/100
|
| William Hill |
2/5
|
9/25
|
1/2
|
| 888sport |
2/5
|
9/25
|
1/2
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
The team goals markets for both sides suggest that scoring at least one goal is more likely than scoring two or more.
Northern Ireland team goals
For Northern Ireland's team goals, Over 0.5 goals at 1.35 is clearly favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.85. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 goal is 1.78 against 1.98 for Under 1 goal, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.45 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.65.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.85 | 0.5 | 1.35 |
| 1.98 | 1 | 1.78 |
| 1.45 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Georgia team goals
For Georgia's team goals, Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 goals at 2.75. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal at 1.80 and Over 1 goal at 1.95 are close, while at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals at 1.35 is favoured over Over 1.5 goals at 2.90.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.80 | 1 | 1.95 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.90 |
