Northern Ireland vs Georgia: prediction & betting odds 5 October 2026

Odds overview

In the 1X2 market, Northern Ireland are slight favourites at 2.55 to win, compared with 2.90 for Georgia; the draw is 3.20. In the main goals market, Under 2.5 at 1.65 is considered considerably more likely than Over 2.5 at 2.25. For a handicap of 0, Northern Ireland at 1.78 are favoured over Georgia at 2.03.

Why Northern Ireland are favourites

The bookmakers give the hosts a modest edge: Northern Ireland are 2.55 to win, the draw is 3.20 and Georgia are 2.90.

• Northern Ireland come into the match after beating Ukraine, having defended in an organised way despite their opponents' advantage in play.

• Georgia lost to Hungary in the previous UEFA Nations League round, complicating their position in the standings.

Form and Line-up Northern Ireland

Ahead of this UEFA Nations League match, Northern Ireland are joint bottom for goals conceded by their opponents (0.0). In their last 10 home matches in the competition, their opponents have never attempted more than 13.5 shots in a game.

• Northern Ireland's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• There were fewer than 9.5 corners in 8 of Northern Ireland's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.
• Northern Ireland received fewer than 2.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Pierce Charles, Brodie Spencer, Terry Devlin, Tom Atcheson, Ruairi McConville, Kieran Brown, Trai Hume, Shea Charles, Jamie Donley, Isaac Price, Kieran Morrison

Dan Ballard will miss the match through injury.

Form and Line-up Georgia

Georgia are near the bottom of the current competition rankings for goals scored (0.0). In 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, the two teams combined for no more than 25.5 attempted shots.

• Georgia received more than 1.5 yellow cards in 9 of their last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches.
• Georgia took more than 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
• There were more than 7.5 corners in 8 of Georgia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.

Probable line-up (3-4-1-2): Giorgi Mamardashvili, Lasha Dvali, Saba Goglichidze, Luka Lochoshvili, Otar Kiteishvili, Irakli Yegoian, Heorhiy Tsitaishvili, Otar Kakabadze, Giorgi Chakvetadze, Khvicha Kvarackhelija, Georges Mikautadze

The teams' chances

The margin-free estimate gives Northern Ireland a 37.4% chance of winning, with average odds of 2.55 and fair odds of 2.68. The draw is rated at 29.8% (3.20; 3.36), and a Georgia win at 32.9% (2.90; 3.04).

Total goals prediction

For the 2.5-goal total, Under 2.5 at 1.65 is favoured over Over 2.5 at 2.25. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 at 1.70 is favoured over Under 2 at 2.07, while at 3.5 goals Under 3.5 at 1.22 is clearly favoured over Over 3.5 at 3.90.

Handicap prediction

Northern Ireland (-1.5) at 5.10 have shorter odds than Georgia (-1.5) at 6.10. With a +1.5 handicap, Northern Ireland at 1.08 and Georgia at 1.12 are closely matched; at -1, Northern Ireland are 4.15 against Georgia at 5.10, and at +1, Northern Ireland are 1.12 against Georgia at 1.17. Northern Ireland (0) at 1.78 have shorter odds than Georgia (0) at 2.03.

Both teams to score prediction

Both teams to score – No at 1.82 has slightly shorter odds than Both teams to score – Yes at 1.92: the more likely scenario is that at least one team fails to score.

Double chance forecast

Bookmaker	1X	12	X2
Bet365	9/25	2/5	53/100
William Hill	2/5	9/25	1/2
888sport	9/25	2/5	11/25

Odds are current as of the material publication date

Team goals prediction

The individual team goals markets suggest that each side are more likely to score at least once than to score two or more goals.

Northern Ireland team goals

For Northern Ireland team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.35 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 2.85. At the 1-goal line, Over 1 is 1.78 against 1.98 for Under 1, while at 1.5 goals Under 1.5 at 1.45 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.65.

Georgia team goals

For Georgia team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.40 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.75. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.80 and Over 1 at 1.95 are close, while at 1.5 goals Under 1.5 at 1.35 is favoured over Over 1.5 at 2.90.