Odds overview
Sweden are clear favourites: a Sweden win is available at 1.80, while a Romania win and a draw are offered at around 4.15 and 3.95 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. In the main handicap market, Sweden (0) at 1.35 are quoted much shorter than Romania (0) at 2.90.
Why Sweden are favourites
Bookmakers favour Sweden: a Swedish win is offered at 1.80, a draw at 3.95 and a Romanian win at 4.15.
• Sweden lead their UEFA Nations League group and are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in the competition.
• Romania lost their first meeting with Sweden 1:2 and suffered a heavy 0:6 defeat to Poland in the previous round.
Form and Line-up Romania
Gheorghe Hagi's side have endured a difficult spell in the UEFA Nations League. After a 2:4 home defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania lost heavily to Poland (0:6), with Radu Drăgușin's dismissal in the 22nd minute affecting the course of the match.
The upcoming match will be Romania's first competitive home game in front of spectators under Hagi. Despite their defensive problems, Romania still create attacking opportunities: they have registered at least 4 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were fewer than 25.5 fouls in 9 of Romania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Romania attempted more than 12.5 shots, including blocked efforts, in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- The teams combined for more than 7.5 shots on target in 8 of Romania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Romania line-up (4-3-3): Cătălin Căbuz Hindrich, Andrei Rațiu, Alex Cubis, Virgil Ghita, Nicusor Bancu, Tudor Băluță, Răzvan Marin, Ianis Hagi, Daniel Bîrligea, Valentin Mihaila, Dennis Man
Radu Drăgușin — doubtful after being sent off in the previous match.
Form and Line-up Sweden
Sweden have been picking up points consistently under Graham Potter this autumn. After wins over Romania (2:1) and Poland (3:1), they drew 1:1 away to Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Viktor Gyökeres putting the visitors ahead in the 61st minute.
The match in Bucharest will be Sweden's fourth in a short international break, so the coaching staff must account for the accumulated workload. Even so, Sweden consistently outdo their opponents in attacking activity: they have had more total shot attempts in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Sweden have had more than 3.5 shots on target in all 10 of their last UEFA Nations League matches.
- There were fewer than 3.5 offsides in 8 of Sweden's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Sweden's opponents won fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Sweden line-up (4-4-2): Viktor Johansson, Hampus Skoglund, Eric Smith, Victor Nilsson Lindelöf, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Alexander Bernhardsson, Jesper Karlström, Hugo Larsson, Sebastian Nanasi, Viktor Gyökeres, Besfort Zeneli
John Mellberg, Yasin Ayari, Gustaf Lagerbielke and Benjamin Nygren are unavailable; Carl Starfelt is doubtful because of an injury.
The teams' chances
Sweden's chance of winning is estimated at 52.9%: the odds are 1.80, with fair odds of 1.89. Romania's chance of winning is 23.0%, with odds of 4.15 and fair odds of 4.36; the draw is rated at 24.1%, with odds of 3.95 and fair odds of 4.15.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romania win | 4.15 | 4.36 | 23.0% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.15 | 24.1% |
| Sweden win | 1.80 | 1.89 | 52.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.50, compared with 2.50 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap prediction
Sweden (-1.5) at 2.90 are favoured over Romania (-1.5) at 7.20. At the 1.5-goal handicap line, Sweden (+1.5) are shorter at 1.05 than Romania (+1.5) at 1.35. For the -1 handicap, the odds are 6.30 on Romania (-1) and 2.40 on Sweden (-1); for the +1 line, they are 1.58 on Romania (+1) and 1.07 on Sweden (+1). At a handicap of 0, Sweden (0) at 1.35 are considerably shorter than Romania (0) at 2.90.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.20 | -1.5 | 2.90 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.30 | -1 | 2.40 |
| 1.58 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 2.90 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is offered at 1.62, shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.20. The latter requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.62 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
6/5
|
11/50
|
9/50
|
| William Hill |
19/20
|
1/4
|
1/4
|
| 888sport |
1/1
|
1/4
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Romania — 1 goal; Sweden — 1.5 goals.
Romania team goals
For Romania's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.40 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 2.75. At the 1-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1 is 1.90 and Over 1 is 1.85. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is favoured at 1.37, compared with 2.85 for Over 1.5.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Sweden team goals
For Sweden's team goals, Over 0.5 at 1.10 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 at 5.40, while Over 1 at 1.20 is shorter than Under 1 at 3.95. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 at 1.75 is slightly shorter than Under 1.5 at 2.00. At 2 goals, Under 2 is favoured at 1.53, compared with 2.45 for Over 2.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 3.95 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.53 | 2 | 2.45 |
