Odds overview
Sweden are clear favourites: a Sweden win is available at 1.80, while a Romania win and a draw are around 4.15 and 3.95 respectively. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is considerably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. In the main handicap market, Sweden Draw No Bet (0) at 1.35 is substantially shorter than Romania Draw No Bet (0) at 2.90.
Why Sweden are favourites
Bookmakers favour Sweden: a Swedish win is offered at 1.80, a draw at 3.95 and a Romanian win at 4.15.
• Sweden lead their UEFA Nations League group and are unbeaten in their last 10 matches in the competition.
• Romania lost their first meeting with Sweden 1:2 and suffered a heavy 0:6 defeat to Poland in the previous round.
Form and Line-up Romania
Gheorghe Hagi's team have endured a difficult spell in the UEFA Nations League. After a 2:4 home defeat to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Romania lost heavily to Poland (0:6), with Radu Drăgușin's dismissal in the 22nd minute affecting the course of the match.
This will be Romania's first competitive home match in front of spectators under Hagi. Despite their defensive problems, Romania are finding attacking opportunities: they have recorded at least 4 shots on target in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 25.5 fouls were recorded in 9 of Romania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Romania attempted more than 12.5 shots, including blocked shots, in 8 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- The teams combined for more than 7.5 shots on target in 8 of Romania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Romania line-up (4-3-3): Cătălin Cîbuz Hindrich, Andrei Rațiu, Alex Cubis, Virgil Ghita, Nicusor Bancu, Tudor Băluță, Răzvan Marin, Ianis Hagi, Daniel Bîrligea, Valentin Mihaila, Dennis Man
Radu Drăgușin — doubtful after being sent off in the previous match.
Form and Line-up Sweden
Sweden have been picking up points consistently under Graham Potter this autumn. After wins over Romania (2:1) and Poland (3:1), they drew away to Bosnia and Herzegovina (1:1), with Viktor Gyökeres putting the visitors ahead in the 61st minute.
The match in Bucharest will be Sweden's fourth during a short international break, so the coaching staff must account for their accumulated workload. Even so, Sweden have consistently outperformed their opponents in attacking activity: they have had more total shot attempts in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Sweden have recorded more than 3.5 shots on target in all of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
- Fewer than 3.5 offsides were recorded in 8 of Sweden's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Nations League.
- Sweden's opponents took fewer than 4.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable Sweden line-up (4-4-2): Viktor Johansson, Hampus Skoglund, Eric Smith, Victor Nilsson Lindelöf, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Alexander Bernhardsson, Jesper Karlström, Hugo Larsson, Sebastian Nanasi, Viktor Gyökeres, Besfort Zeneli
John Mellberg, Yasin Ayari, Gustaf Lagerbielke and Benjamin Nygren are unavailable; Carl Starfelt is doubtful because of an injury.
The teams' chances
Sweden's win probability is estimated at 52.9%: the odds are 1.80, with fair odds of 1.89. Romania have a 23.0% chance at odds of 4.15 and fair odds of 4.36, while the draw has a 24.1% chance at 3.95 and 4.15 respectively.
| Result | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Romania win | 4.15 | 4.36 | 23.0% |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.15 | 24.1% |
| Sweden win | 1.80 | 1.89 | 52.9% |
Total goals analysis
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 is shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.20. At 3.5 goals, Under 3.5 goals is favoured at 1.50, compared with 2.50 for Over 3.5 goals.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| 3.5 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
Handicap analysis
Sweden (-1.5) at 2.90 are favoured over Romania (-1.5) at 7.20. At the +1.5 line, Sweden (+1.5) are shorter at 1.05 than Romania (+1.5) at 1.35. At -1, the odds are 6.30 for Romania (-1) and 2.40 for Sweden (-1); at +1, they are 1.58 for Romania (+1) and 1.07 for Sweden (+1). For the zero handicap, Sweden Draw No Bet (0) at 1.35 are considerably shorter than Romania Draw No Bet (0) at 2.90.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 7.20 | -1.5 | 2.90 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 1.05 |
| 6.30 | -1 | 2.40 |
| 1.58 | 1 | 1.07 |
| 2.90 | 0 | 1.35 |
Both teams to score analysis
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.62, shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.20; the latter requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.62 |
| No | 2.20 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
4/5
|
29/100
|
29/100
|
| William Hill |
19/20
|
1/4
|
1/4
|
| 888sport |
19/20
|
29/100
|
11/50
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals analysis
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Romania — 1 goal; Sweden — 1.5 goals.
Romania team total goals
Romania's team goal total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.40 is shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 2.75. At the 1-goal line, the odds are almost equal: Under 1 goal is 1.90 and Over 1 goal is 1.85. At 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 goals is favoured at 1.37, compared with 2.85 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75 | 0.5 | 1.40 |
| 1.90 | 1 | 1.85 |
| 1.37 | 1.5 | 2.85 |
Sweden team total goals
Sweden's team goal total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.10 is considerably shorter than Under 0.5 goals at 5.40, while Over 1 goal at 1.20 is shorter than Under 1 goal at 3.95. At the 1.5-goal line, Over 1.5 goals at 1.75 is slightly shorter than Under 1.5 goals at 2.00. At 2 goals, Under 2 goals is favoured at 1.53, compared with 2.45 for Over 2 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 3.95 | 1 | 1.20 |
| 2.00 | 1.5 | 1.75 |
| 1.53 | 2 | 2.45 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Elchin Masiyev (Azerbaijan)
Matches — 8 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.3;
Matches with a red card — 1 of 8;
Matches with a penalty — 0 of 8.
Ottó Hindrich
Andrei Coubiș
Andrei Florin Rațiu
Matei Ilie
Nicușor Silviu Bancu
Darius Dumitru Olaru
Florin Lucian Tănase
Nicolae Claudiu Stanciu
Răzvan Gabriel Marin
Vlad Mihai Dragomir
Dennis Man
Ionuț Andrei Radu
Valentin Cojocaru
Anthony Joseph Patrick Strata
Lisav Eissat
Raul Opruț
Ianis Hagi
Mihai Valentin Mihăilă
Olimpiu Moruțan
Tobias Viktor Johansson
Felix Olof Allan Nelson Beijmo
Gabriel Johan Gudmundsson
Algot Sebastian Nanasi
Eric Anders Smith
Jesper Karlström
Alexander Olof Bernhardsson
Melker Åke Ellborg
Noel Tornqvist
Samuel Elias Dahl
Daniel Jonathan Svensson
Erik Hampus Skoglund
Axel Hugo Bolin
Hugo Emanuel Larsson
