Odds overview
France are clear favourites: a France win is available at 1.53, while the draw and a Belgium win are around 4.70 and 5.50. In the main goals market, Over 2.5 is shorter at 1.48 than Under 2.5 at 2.55. France Draw No Bet, a handicap of 0, is 1.20, while Belgium Draw No Bet, also a handicap of 0, is 3.95, further underlining the hosts' advantage.
Why France are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a France win is offered at 1.53, compared with 5.50 for a Belgium win and 4.70 for the draw.
• France remain top of Group A1 after a successful trip to Turkey, where they scored once and defended reliably.
• Belgium also took maximum points away to Italy, beating them 2:0, but remain one place behind France.
Form and Line-up France
France drew 1:1 with Italy in a recent match. Michael Olise scored France's only goal, while Dayot Upamecano was sent off towards the end.
France have been well organised at home in the Nations League: they have matched or exceeded their opponents' shot totals in all 10 of their last 10 home matches and committed fewer than 13.5 fouls in nine of those 10 games.
- France attempted more than 11.5 shots in nine of their last 10 Nations League home matches.
- France's opponents attempted fewer than 11.5 shots in nine of their 10 Nations League home matches.
- Fewer than 5.5 yellow cards were shown in nine of France's last 10 Nations League home matches.
Probable line-up: Mike Maignan, Pierre Kalulu, Jérémy Jacquet, Jules Koundé, Adrien Truffert, Rayan Cherki, Lucas Da Cunha, Adrien Rabiot, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué
Kylian Mbappé will miss the game with a knee problem. Dayot Upamecano is unavailable after being sent off in the previous match.
Form and Line-up Belgium
Belgium have been fairly pragmatic away from home in the Nations League, attempting fewer than 13.5 shots in nine of their last 10 away games.
At the same time, Belgium's matches stand out for their high number of shots on target: an average of 13.67 per game, the highest figure among all teams in the tournament.
- Belgium won more than 3.5 corners in nine of their last 10 Nations League away matches.
- Fewer than 25.5 fouls were recorded in nine of Belgium's 10 Nations League away matches.
- Fewer than 5.5 cards were shown in nine of Belgium's last 10 Nations League away matches.
Probable line-up (4-2-3-1): Senne Lammens, Brandon Mechele, Timothy Castagne, Nathan Ngoy, Maxim De Cuyper, Mika Godts, Youri Tielemans, Hans Vanaken, Dodi Lukebakio, Kevin De Bruyne, Charles De Ketelaere
Team chances
A France win is quoted at 1.53, with fair odds of 1.60 and a probability of 62.4%. The draw is available at 4.70, with fair odds of 4.93 and a probability of 20.3%. A Belgium win is offered at 5.50, with fair odds of 5.76 and a probability of 17.3%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| France to win | 1.53 | 1.60 | 62.4% |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.93 | 20.3% |
| Belgium to win | 5.50 | 5.76 | 17.3% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is 2.55 and Over 2.5 is 1.48, so the market expects at least three goals. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 is favoured at 1.70 over Over 3.5 at 2.18.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.55 | 1.48 |
| 3.5 | 1.70 | 2.18 |
Handicap prediction
France (-1.5) are offered at 2.30, while Belgium (+1.5) are 1.60. At the one-goal line, France (-1) are 1.83 and Belgium (+1) are 1.97, so the odds are close. France Draw No Bet, a handicap of 0, is 1.20 against 3.95 for Belgium Draw No Bet, also a handicap of 0, indicating a notable advantage for France.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.60 | |
| 1.83 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.97 | |
| 1.20 | 0 | 3.95 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is quoted at 1.58, while Both teams to score — No is 2.30. The shorter odds on Yes suggest the market is more likely to expect goals from both teams.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.58 |
| No | 2.30 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
9/50
|
69/50
|
| William Hill |
3/20
|
1/5
|
29/20
|
| 888sport |
3/20
|
1/5
|
29/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
For this match, bookmakers have set the following team goal totals: France — 2 goals, Belgium — 1 goal.
France team goals
France team goals: Under 0.5 is 7.60 and Over 0.5 is 1.04; at the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 2.55 and 1.48 respectively. At the two-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.95 and Over 2 at 1.80, while at 2.5 goals, Under 2.5 is 1.55 and Over 2.5 is 2.35. The market is particularly confident that France will score at least once, but no more than twice.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.60 | 0.5 | 1.04 |
| 2.55 | 1.5 | 1.48 |
| 1.95 | 2 | 1.80 |
| 1.55 | 2.5 | 2.35 |
Belgium team goals
Belgium team goals: Under 0.5 is 2.60 and Over 0.5 is 1.45. At the one-goal line, Under 1 is 1.73 compared with 2.05 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, Under 1.5 is 1.35 and Over 1.5 is 2.95. The odds suggest Belgium are more likely to score one goal or fewer.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.60 | 0.5 | 1.45 |
| 1.73 | 1 | 2.05 |
| 1.35 | 1.5 | 2.95 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Nicholas Walsh (Scotland)
Matches — 16 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.2;
Matches with a red card — 0 of 16;
Matches with a penalty — 5 of 16.
