Odds overview
Cyprus are favourites: a home win is available at around 1.68, while the draw and a Latvia win are offered at 3.75 and 4.80. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 1.99. In the handicap market, Latvia (-1) at 1.63 is seen as more likely than Cyprus (-1) at 2.17.
Why Cyprus are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: a Cyprus win is offered at 1.68, the draw at 3.75 and a Latvia win at 4.80.
• The hosts' defence keeps opponents in check: Cyprus's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• The visitors have persistent problems in attack: Latvia have not scored more than one goal in any of their last 10 matches across all competitions.
• Cyprus also go into the match with greater confidence after beating Armenia (2:0), while Latvia lost away to the same opponents (0:2).
Form and Line-up Cyprus
Cyprus have made a modest start to the competition: they lost away to Montenegro (1:2) and drew with Latvia (0:0).
In home UEFA Nations League matches, Cyprus have controlled the tempo: 9 of their last 10 home games have featured fewer than 3.5 goals, and Cyprus have had fewer than 4.5 shots on target.
- The two teams have had fewer than 25.5 shots combined in 9 of Cyprus's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches
- There have been fewer than 9.5 shots on target in 9 of Cyprus's last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches
- Fewer than 4.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Cyprus's last 10 matches across all competitions
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Fabiano, L. Konomis, Hector Kyprianou, Nikolas Panayiotou, Kostas Pileas, Panayiotis Andreou, Grigoris Kastanos, Loizos Loizou, M. Edwards, Andronikos Kakoullis, Ioannis Pittas
Form and Line-up Latvia
Latvia are going through a difficult spell: on 2 October, they lost 1:2 at home to Montenegro.
In away UEFA Nations League matches, Latvia defend cautiously and do not force the pace: in 8 of their last 10 away games, the two teams have had no more than 25.5 shots combined.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Latvia's last 10 matches across all competitions
- There have been fewer than 8.5 shots on target in 9 of Latvia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches
- Referees have shown fewer than 5.5 yellow cards in 8 of Latvia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches
Probable line-up (5-4-1): R. Matrevics, R. Savalnieks, D. Melniks, A. Cernomordijs, O. Vientiess, D. Cirkins, D. Patijcuks, L. Vapne, D. Zelenkovs, A. Ciganiks, R. Uldrikis
The teams' chances
A Cyprus win is offered at 1.68, with fair odds of 1.80 and a fair probability of 55.6%. The corresponding figures are 3.75, 4.01 and 24.9% for the draw, and 4.80, 5.14 and 19.5% for a Latvia win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus win | 1.68 | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.01 | 24.9% |
| Latvia win | 4.80 | 5.14 | 19.5% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is offered at 1.76, compared with 1.99 for Over 2.5 goals. At a line of 2 goals, Over 2 is available at 1.50 and Under 2 at 2.43. Under 3.5 goals at 1.27 has considerably shorter odds than Over 3.5 goals at 3.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.76 | 1.99 |
| 2 | 2.43 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.35 |
Handicap prediction
Latvia (-1) at 1.63 has shorter odds than Cyprus (-1) at 2.17, indicating that the former is considered more likely.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | -1 | 1.63 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
29/100
|
1/1
|
| William Hill |
9/50
|
1/4
|
11/10
|
| 888sport |
9/50
|
1/4
|
11/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Cyprus — 1.5 goals; Latvia — 0.5 goals.
Cyprus team total goals
For Cyprus's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.17 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 4.25. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 are almost level at 1.88 and 1.86. Under 2.5 is offered at 1.25, compared with 3.50 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 1.88 | 1.5 | 1.86 |
| 1.25 | 2.5 | 3.50 |
Latvia team total goals
For Latvia's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.63 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.17. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.21, compared with 3.85 for Over 1.5; at 2.5 goals, the corresponding odds are 1.03 and 7.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | 0.5 | 1.63 |
| 1.21 | 1.5 | 3.85 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
