Odds overview
Cyprus are favourites at around 1.68 to win, while the draw is available at 3.75 and a Latvia win at 4.80. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals at 1.76 has shorter odds than Over 2.5 goals at 1.99. In the handicap market, Latvia (-1) at 1.63 is rated more likely than Cyprus (-1) at 2.17.
Why Cyprus are favourites
Bookmakers favour the hosts: Cyprus are 1.68 to win, the draw is 3.75 and a Latvia win is 4.80.
• The hosts' defence keeps opponents in check: Cyprus's opponents scored fewer than 2.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• The visitors have persistent attacking problems: Latvia have not scored more than one goal in any of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
• Cyprus also come into the match with more confidence after beating Armenia (2:0), while Latvia lost away to the same opponents (0:2).
Form and Line-up Cyprus
Cyprus have had modest results since the start of the tournament: they lost away to Montenegro (1:2) and drew with Latvia (0:0).
Yet Cyprus have controlled the tempo in their home UEFA Nations League matches: 9 of their last 10 at home featured fewer than 3.5 goals, and the team registered fewer than 4.5 shots on target.
- In 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches, the two teams had fewer than 25.5 shot attempts combined
- In 9 of their last 10 home UEFA Nations League matches, there were fewer than 9.5 shots on target
- Fewer than 4.5 goals were scored in 8 of Cyprus's last 10 matches in all competitions
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Fabiano, L. Konomis, Hector Kyprianou, Nikolas Panayiotou, Kostas Pileas, Panayiotis Andreou, Grigoris Kastanos, Loizos Loizou, M. Edwards, Andronikos Kakoullis, Ioannis Pittas
Form and Line-up Latvia
Latvia are going through a difficult spell: they lost 1:2 at home to Montenegro on 2 October.
Away from home in the UEFA Nations League, Latvia focus firmly on defence and do not force the pace: in 8 of their last 10 away matches, the two teams had no more than 25.5 shot attempts combined.
- Fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 9 of Latvia's last 10 matches in all competitions
- In 9 of Latvia's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches, there were fewer than 8.5 shots on target in total
- Referees showed fewer than 5.5 yellow cards in 8 of Latvia's last 10 away UEFA Nations League matches
Probable line-up (5-4-1): R. Matrevics, R. Savalnieks, D. Melniks, A. Cernomordijs, O. Vientiess, D. Cirkin, D. Patijcuks, L. Vapne, D. Zelenkovs, A. Ciganiks, R. Uldrikis
The teams' chances
Cyprus to win is offered at 1.68; the fair odds are 1.80, implying a 55.6% chance. For the draw, the figures are 3.75, 4.01 and 24.9%; for Latvia to win, they are 4.80, 5.14 and 19.5%, respectively.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus to win | 1.68 | 1.80 | 55.6% |
| Draw | 3.75 | 4.01 | 24.9% |
| Latvia to win | 4.80 | 5.14 | 19.5% |
Total goals prediction
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.76, compared with 1.99 for Over 2.5 goals. At the 2-goal line, Over 2 is 1.50 and Under 2 is 2.43. Under 3.5 at 1.27 has considerably shorter odds than Over 3.5 at 3.35.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.76 | 1.99 |
| 2 | 2.43 | 1.50 |
| 3.5 | 1.27 | 3.35 |
Handicap prediction
Latvia (-1) at 1.63 has shorter odds than Cyprus (-1) at 2.17, indicating that bookmakers rate the former as more likely.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | -1 | 1.63 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/100
|
29/100
|
5/4
|
| William Hill |
9/50
|
1/4
|
11/10
|
| 888sport |
11/100
|
1/4
|
13/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Cyprus — 1.5 goals; Latvia — 0.5 goals.
Cyprus team total goals
For Cyprus's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.17 has much shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 4.25. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 and Over 1.5 are almost evenly matched — 1.88 and 1.86. Under 2.5 is 1.25, compared with 3.50 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.25 | 0.5 | 1.17 |
| 1.88 | 1.5 | 1.86 |
| 1.25 | 2.5 | 3.50 |
Latvia team total goals
For Latvia's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.63 has shorter odds than Under 0.5 at 2.17. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is 1.21, compared with 3.85 for Over 1.5; at the 2.5-goal line, the respective odds are 1.03 and 7.90.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.17 | 0.5 | 1.63 |
| 1.21 | 1.5 | 3.85 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Giorgi Kruashvili (Georgia)
Matches — 10 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 24;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.9;
Matches with red cards — 2 out of 10;
Matches with penalties — 2 out of 10.
Fabiano Freitas
Giorgos Malekkides
Hector Matthew Kyprianou
Nikolas Panagiotou
Grigoris Kastanos
Kostakis Artymatas
Marcus Edwards
Ioannis Pittas
Loizos Loizou
Antreas Paraskevas
Joël Mall
Nicholas Tsaroulla
Evagoras Antoniou
Konstantinos Sotiriou
Ioannis Kosti
Marinos Tzionis
Stavros Georgiou
Rihards Matrevics
Oskars Vientiess
Andrejs Cigaņiks
Daniels Balodis
Raivis Jurkovskis
Markuss Strods
Deniss Melniks
Lūkass Vapne
Vladislavs Gutkovskis
Danila Patijčuks
Albert Aleksanjan
Kristers Čudars
Eduards Emsis
Aleksejs Saveļjevs
Gļebs Žaleiko
Roberts Uldriķis
