Rublev is the superior player here, and that is immediately evident on hard courts. The 13th seed has a title in Bastad and a final in Barcelona to his name this season, as well as a forehand that finishes rallies in two or three shots. The Spaniard has nothing to counter this with: he cannot match the ball speed and is forced to play at his opponent's pace.
However, the Russian's form has been patchy. In Montreal, he lost his opening match to Juncheng Shang, the world No. 281, in three sets — (5:7, 6:4, 7:6). Rublev rarely loses quickly and wins quickly even less often. Two short sets are simply not his game.
Carreño Busta is 35, back in the top 100, and beat Tomáš Macháč (6:3, 6:2) in 73 minutes in the first round. The Spaniard does not serve aces or hit winners. He returns almost everything, extends rallies and turns every return game into a separate task. In Cincinnati's humid August air, opponents like that do not give up two games per set.
That result against Macháč should not mislead us. The Czech has been inconsistent all season and tends to fall apart on his own, while Rublev beat him in straight sets in Barcelona. Carreño Busta has not gained speed — he came up against a favourable opponent and took everything he gave him.
That is the outlook. Rublev will prevail thanks to his first serve and power from the baseline, but a slow start against the tenacious Spaniard will cost him at least one prolonged set. 7:5 and 6:4, a tie-break or three sets — every viable scenario clears the total.
