Atlanta United are already preparing for next season, while Toronto still hope to extend this one. The hosts are out of play-off contention and are playing their final home match. The visitors have a different objective: they are 11th in the Eastern Conference with 39 points, just two points off the wild-card places. There are two rounds remaining. Another slip-up could leave the Canadians without postseason football.
Atlanta United
Home advantage has offered Atlanta United little help for some time. They have won just four of their 16 home matches and lost ten. Their last three have ended in defeats to Cincinnati (1:3), Inter Miami (1:3) and Chicago (2:3). The problem runs deeper than a poor run of results. In their last four home games, opponents have generated an average of 1.87 xG per match. Miguel Almirón, Aleksey Miranchuk and Breel Embolo have enough quality to produce individual moments in attack, but the defence asks too much of them. Even two goals against Chicago failed to earn any points.
Toronto
Toronto have plenty of problems of their own. Nine defeats in 15 away matches are a significant concern, as are injuries to defenders Walker Zimmerman and Kobe Franklin. However, the Canadians have recorded three wins, one draw and one defeat in their last five league matches, scoring 11 goals. They beat New York Red Bulls away (2:0) and came from behind to beat D.C. United during the week (2:1). Josh Sargent scored the winner, taking his league tally to nine goals. The visitors' defence is vulnerable, but their attack has enough to respond even after a poor start.
Atlanta United vs Toronto Prediction
Atlanta United beat Toronto away in April (2:1). The hosts cannot be written off beforehand. They can pin their opponents back, particularly early in the game. But with a defence like theirs, any spell of Atlanta United pressure could lead to a dangerous counter-attack. Toronto have had better results in recent rounds and have far more reason to push for a win. The bet is Toronto with a handicap (0): a draw means a refund, while the hosts' defensive errors give the visitors a good chance of taking all three points.
