The hosts have not looked like a team to fear at Turf Moor for some time. In the summer, they were expected to challenge for a return to the Premier League. Now they sit 22nd after 12 games. Portsmouth are 11th, have ten more points and have looked more convincing in recent matches. And it is about more than just their league position.
Burnley
Burnley concede far too easily. In their last league match, they opened the scoring against Lincoln City but ended up losing heavily (1:4). The club subsequently sacked Nicky Hayen. Fabio Celestini will take charge for the first time against Portsmouth, and the change of manager could give the players a lift. But a defence cannot be rebuilt in just a few training sessions. The hosts have conceded 25 goals in 12 league games. They are winless in six home matches, with four draws and two defeats. Burnley have conceded in all six. Even when their attack delivers, the hosts struggle to hold on to a result.
Portsmouth
Portsmouth are currently handling difficult matches better. They have won three and drawn one of their last four league games. They beat Norwich City away (1:0), then took a point at Wolverhampton Wanderers (1:1). Portsmouth spent long periods defending there and only equalised in the 86th minute. They also had to come from behind against Millwall (2:1). The winning goal came via a deflection, so it was hardly a perfect performance. But the visitors do not give up when things fail to go to plan. They have lost just once in their last eight league games.
Burnley vs Portsmouth Prediction
Celestini's arrival could see Burnley play with greater ambition. Even so, the hosts need to do more than attack more often: they must also stop giving opponents chances in front of their own goal. Portsmouth do not need to dominate possession throughout the match: their recent away performances have already shown they can remain patient without the ball and take their chance. We therefore back Portsmouth to win or draw.
