Both Cruzeiro and Coritiba started the new season with defeats. The hosts go into this match as favourites but failed badly in the first round of the league, whereas Coritiba, having returned from Série B, generally looked decent at the start of the campaign.
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro began with an away defeat against Botafogo (0:4). However, the xG statistics (1.4) and their shot volume (17 efforts) showed that the club actually controlled the game. In the regional league the squad redeemed themselves by beating Betim (1:0), but it was unconvincing: the winning goal came in the 100th minute. At home they have not impressed either – just one win in their last five matches in all competitions, along with three defeats.
Coritiba
Coritiba were promoted from Série B and have not yet managed to adapt to the level of the Série A. The start of the season was marred by a defeat to Red Bull Bragantino (0:1). The opponents had 30 shots at their goal (10 on target), created 2.77 xG and enjoyed 71% possession, but scored only once, in the 93rd minute, despite playing with a numerical advantage for more than an hour. Then in the regional league the side beat Cianorte (1:0), again scoring in the closing minutes. Away from home the visitors look solid – seven previous away matches without defeat – and they have lost to Cruzeiro only once in their last five head-to-head meetings.
Cruzeiro vs Coritiba Prediction
Cruzeiro have a clear advantage thanks to the quality of their squad, home advantage and stable defensive play. However, Coritiba are unlikely to allow the hosts to record a heavy win. Their defence should be reliable, and the visitors are well placed to cover the +1.5 handicap.
