For the first time since 2023, two Russian players will meet in an ATP tournament final. This is Medvedev's 44th career title match (32 wins), while Rublev is playing his third final of the season, having won in Båstad. Their head-to-head record strongly favours Daniil at 8-2, with all ten matches played on hard courts. At first glance, the fast court in Hangzhou suits Andrey's attacking style, but the conditions are also ideal for Medvedev's tactical traps.
Daniil Medvedev
The tournament's top seed has lived up to his favourite status: on his way to the final, he beat Valentin Royer (7:6, 6:3), overcame Coleman Wong (6:3, 6:7, 6:3) and comfortably defeated Roman Safiullin (7:5, 6:4). That victory over his compatriot was his eighth consecutive win against a fellow Russian on hard courts. Medvedev typically stands deep behind the baseline, takes the pace off incoming shots and forces opponents to attack from static positions. His flat, skidding groundstrokes off both wings disrupt their rhythm, while his powerful first serve brings easy points on fast courts. Daniil reads the game superbly and makes very few unforced errors at key moments.
Andrey Rublev
Rublev has reached his third final of the season, but his record against the elite is concerning: he has won just one of his last 14 matches against top-10 players, beating Alex de Minaur in Doha in 2025. At this tournament, he has beaten Rinky Hijikata (6:3, 6:3), Hugo Gaston (6:7, 7:6, 6:1) and Kieran (7:6, 6:1), playing three tie-breaks and conceding at least six games to each opponent. Andrey's game is built on relentless aggression, heavy, penetrating shots and sustained pressure from the baseline. Against elite defensive players, however, Rublev lacks tactical flexibility and emotional composure: when the ball keeps coming back, he starts to force the play and make errors in bunches.
Daniil Medvedev vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
Rublev will try to take control from the opening games, but Daniil's stubborn defence will inevitably frustrate him and push him into taking unnecessary risks. Medvedev's commanding head-to-head record (8-2), his eight-match winning streak against fellow Russians on hard courts and Rublev's poor record against top players make him the clear favourite.
