Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the ATP Paris match.
Karen Khachanov, who thrives on Paris’ indoor courts with just two defeats in his last eleven matches here, faces Alex de Minaur, a consistent quarterfinalist at this tournament over the past two seasons.
Karen Khachanov
Ranked 14th, Khachanov has rediscovered his rhythm in Paris after a rough stretch of five consecutive losses. He reached the quarterfinals here in 2023 and came close to the final last year. This season, the Russian beat Ethan Quinn comfortably and then battled past Joao Fonseca (6:1, 3:6, 6:3), once again showcasing a dominant serve — 72% first-serve accuracy, 80% points won behind it, and eight aces. However, his record against top-30 opponents this season remains problematic, with just six wins and thirteen defeats.
Alex de Minaur
Ranked sixth in the world, de Minaur has made the quarterfinals in Paris two years running, yet his recent form leaves doubts. The Australian has lost 12 of his 18 matches against top-20 players this season. In his opening match, he struggled past Gabriel Diallo (7:6, 4:6, 6:3), allowing four break points and pushing the opening set to a tie-break. Against Khachanov, de Minaur trails 1-2 in head-to-heads and has dropped at least one set in every encounter.
Karen Khachanov vs Alex de Minaur Prediction
Khachanov’s powerful serve and depth from the baseline give him an advantage indoors, while de Minaur continues to struggle against elite opposition. The Russian should be able to keep this match close or even edge it.
