Medvedev has not been blowing anyone away for a long time. He has 28 wins and 11 defeats this season, but almost all of that cushion was built before April: titles in Brisbane and Dubai, and a final at Indian Wells. Since then, there have been early exits and tight matches in which the score remains in the balance until the very end.
The summer spell confirmed that. A third-round exit at Wimbledon, then Montreal and a defeat to Botic van de Zandschulp (3:6, 6:7). Even when losing, the Russian takes sets to tie-breaks. Without his first serve and relying on his return, he rarely wins sets comfortably.
Trungelliti is exactly the type of player who drags matches out. The Argentine is 36, ranked 91st in the world and a pure clay-courter, but he came through qualifying and the first round in three tough matches: Sebastian Ofner (4:6, 6:4, 7:6), Kei Nishikori (4:6, 7:5, 6:3), Hamad Medjedovic (7:5, 7:6). That is 90 games across three matches.
He does not hit many winners or serve aces in batches. He gets everything back, varies the height and makes opponents play out every point. Against Medvedev, who does not take unnecessary risks himself, that produces long rallies and drawn-out games. There is also heat of around 93°F in Ohio: the ball travels more slowly and it is easier to defend.
March's Indian Wells may cause some doubt, when Medvedev reached the final while dropping only 25 games. That version of him remained in March. He is now reshaping his coaching team and begins this Masters event without a single warm-up match — against a player already accustomed to the court, ball and humidity.
The total only fails in a rout: 6:2, 6:3 or 6:4, 6:2. Any tie-break, any close set, any 6:4 set — and the bet lands during the second set. We are backing this match not to end quickly.
