New England Revolution have won four matches in a row. Inter Miami, by contrast, have lost momentum: a defeat to New York Red Bulls (0:2) was followed by a draw with Cincinnati (2:2). Just two points separate the teams, with the play-offs ahead. The hosts are second in the Eastern Conference, while the visitors are third. A win would consolidate New England Revolution's hold on second place. Both teams have already qualified for the play-offs, though, so this is about securing a more favourable position ahead of the decisive matches rather than salvaging the season.
New England Revolution
New England Revolution do not need a goal-fest to win. Their last four league matches have included a 3:2 against New York Red Bulls and much quieter results against Chicago Fire (1:0) and Philadelphia Union (2:1). Their latest match showed that the hosts' defence is not impenetrable. At home, however, they have conceded just 18 goals in 16 matches. In 12 of those 16 home games, the teams have scored no more than three goals between them. This is no longer a chance run of two or three matches, but a typical home outcome for New England Revolution.
Inter Miami
Inter Miami have scored 75 goals in 32 league matches. No team in the league has scored more. Their away average — exactly two goals per match — also makes it difficult to call this an obvious low-scoring fixture, particularly as they will be fighting for second place rather than simply playing out the season. However, half of their 16 away matches have produced no more than three goals, and their latest trip to New York Red Bulls ended without them scoring. April's head-to-head meeting was also revealing: it finished 1:1, despite Inter Miami and New England Revolution recording 35 shots between them.
New England Revolution vs Inter Miami Prediction
With the scores level, the hosts have no reason to commit everyone forward at once. Even a draw would leave them two points ahead of Inter Miami. The visitors need a win, but the more adventurous they are in attack, the more space New England Revolution will have. We therefore do not expect an entirely cagey game. Both sides will have chances, but that does not necessarily mean a constant exchange of attacks. Our pick is under 3.5 goals. Inter Miami's attack poses a risk to the bet, but New England Revolution's home figures and April's head-to-head meeting give us reason to expect three goals or fewer.
