An over 178.5 points bet in the match between Olimpia Milano and Valencia is easy to dismiss after looking at the Italian team's recent games. They have failed to reach even 82 points in three consecutive rounds. But on 5 November 2026, opponents will arrive in Milan against whom it is difficult to maintain a slow pace throughout the game. Valencia force teams to respond to their attacking play. And the hosts already have plenty of defensive problems.
Olimpia Milano
Olimpia Milano have made a difficult start to the EuroLeague: one win in nine rounds and 90.2 points conceded per game. Their offence stalled in recent meetings with Panathinaikos and Olympiacos — they scored 75 and 78 points. That is the main risk to the over bet, and it cannot be ignored. At home, however, they have already played very differently: they scored 89 points against Real Madrid and 97 against Dubai Basketball. Both games were high-scoring because their opponents were happy to trade baskets. Against Valencia, there should be more opportunities for such spells than in their last two away games.
Valencia
Valencia have already established themselves in the upper reaches of the standings. They have six wins in nine rounds, average 97.1 points per game and have seen seven games go over 178.5 points. They move the ball quickly into attack, are not afraid to shoot from beyond the arc and make 39.1% of their three-point attempts. Their own defence also gives opponents opportunities: they concede 90.9 points per game. Injuries to Nikola Mirotic and Nate Reuvers limit their options under the basket. Even without them, however, the visitors scored 94 points against Barcelona and then 111 against MoraBanc Andorra in the Spanish league.
Olimpia Milano vs Valencia Prediction
There is also recent head-to-head history to consider. Last season, the teams traded baskets in both meetings: 203 points in Milan and 198 in Valencia. That history alone is not enough to rely on, but it clearly shows that this matchup can produce that kind of game. If the visitors approach 95 points again, the hosts only need to score around 85 — a perfectly achievable figure against Valencia's defence. We therefore back over 178.5 points, including OT: the visitors' pace and offence carry more weight here than Olimpia Milano's recent low-scoring games.
