Jodar is higher in the rankings and enjoying the best spell of his career, but Tabilo's handicap is more appealing here than the outright result: the Chilean has already shown twice that this match-up need not be easy for the Spaniard.
The Chilean is the 22nd seed and has already beaten Ben Shelton on hard courts in recent weeks, while in the second round in Cincinnati he comfortably dispatched Jan-Lennard Struff (6:3, 6:4) without taking the match to a third set.
The most useful test of this handicap came just two weeks ago. In the Washington semi-finals, Tabilo took the first set from Jodar before losing (6:7, 6:4, 6:4). The margin was just three games: the +4 handicap would have landed even in defeat for the Chilean. Nor is this a convenient sample from distant history — in March, on the hard courts of Indian Wells, Tabilo thrashed Jodar (1:6, 2:6). Their head-to-head record now stands at 1:1.
Jodar is, of course, the deserved favourite. The Spaniard has risen to 11th in the rankings, reached the Washington final and the Montreal semi-finals. But that surge has come at a cost in terms of workload. In Cincinnati, Rafael spent two hours and 56 minutes on court against Denis Shapovalov, trailed 1:5 in the third set, saved two match points and only then won six games in a row.
Tabilo has had a lighter schedule. After Washington, he lost to Hubert Hurkacz in Montreal (4:6, 6:7), but had more time to recover and has already won in straight sets in Cincinnati. That matters more than the overall gloss of Jodar's recent results: the favourite will again have to work hard to break down an opponent who recently kept his match close until the closing stages of every set.
For the bet on Tabilo not to land, Jodar needs to build a substantial lead in games. Their most recent meeting did not produce such a margin, while the Chilean currently has the edge in freshness. That is enough for the +4 handicap: Tabilo may lose the match, but he does not have to lose heavily.
