Do not back England at the World Cup 2026
Bookmakers believe in England at the World Cup 2026. The national team have not dropped out of the top three in the betting since the market opened. Thomas Tuchel surprised fans with some controversial decisions in England’s final squad, but he has kept the Three Lions among the favourites.
Who will win the World Cup 2026?
How Tuchel failed to land even the shortest prices, whether the squad really looks that bad and why England are the most difficult favourites to read at the World Cup, we will try to work through in this article.
The burden of being an England fan: questions over the squad selection
Bets on the England squad went wrong before the tournament even started. English bookmakers had been running a market since the winter on which players would go to the World Cup. In the end, there have been several upsets at very short odds:
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Cole Palmer at 1.03;
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Harry Maguire at 1.31;
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Morgan Gibbs-White at 1.39.
England fans greeted the final squad with real hostility, even though the core group are still heading to America. The unhappy supporters fell into two camps, and their complaints directly contradicted each other:
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The squad needs a reset and a younger profile;
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How could Tuchel leave out players who went to the last World Cups?
Let us counter with a couple of questions:
1. Why make the squad younger when the average age is 26 to 27, and why shake up key positions when, for example, England have Europe’s top scorer and one of the leading contenders in the Golden Boot betting?
Who will be the top scorer at the World Cup 2026?
2. What is the point of keeping the same players on the bench when they failed to change the course of matches at recent tournaments and have had mediocre club seasons?
England’s final World Cup squad: where is the catch?
Tuchel picked his World Cup squad regardless of what the fans wanted. There are several things to say about it:
What did Palmer and Trent do wrong? Realistically, only two omissions raise serious questions. Cole Palmer could have been an excellent alternative to Jude Bellingham, even despite an unconvincing season at Chelsea. Cole moves the ball superbly between the lines and finished in the top five in the Premier League 2025/26 for ball progression metrics, with 4.85 progressive passes A pass that takes opposition players out of the game and makes the attack more dangerous. and 2.1 passes into the box per game. Palmer can also drift wide and, if required, deputise for Harry Kane as a false ten.
Trent Alexander-Arnold, meanwhile, could have offered depth and become a weapon against a low block, something England still have not learned to break down. Against Albania in qualifying, they only scored in the 75th minute. It feels as though Thomas has non-footballing issues with the Real Madrid player.
Foden, Tomori and Shaw logically miss the World Cup. With the defensive lines already well stocked, it would have been strange to include the inconsistent Fikayo Tomori and Luke Shaw, who is playing through the final seasons of his career. Luke or Harry Maguire could have filled the experienced veteran role, but Tuchel chose Jordan Henderson for that.
The criticism over Phil Foden’s absence makes little sense at all. A favourite of the British media and a proper lad has delivered underwhelming Premier League performances for the second year running, and this season he has managed just 10 goals and 7 assists in all competitions. Phil has also lost his versatility. Previously, the midfielder could cover the flanks and the centre, but now he is leaning almost exclusively towards the right touchline.
No great gain, no great loss: Toney, Rashford and Watkins. Given Kane’s guaranteed place in the starting XI, it makes little difference who replaces him. Ollie Watkins and Marcus Rashford finished the season well, while Ollie was the only English player to win a European trophy this year.
With Ivan Toney, Tuchel has solved the team’s least obvious problem: penalties. England have lost three of their four World Cup shootouts, and Toney has the best penalty conversion rate in the current squad, with four misses from 62 attempts. He is a logical choice.
What do England have in the end?
In essence, Tuchel has an excellent starting group for the World Cup, featuring some of the best available players in their positions:
1. Kane through the middle, Saka and Gordon on the flanks. That attacking trio is every manager’s dream. Watkins and Rashford are available in reserve, and they can get minutes against a side such as Panama without disrupting the team balance, or come on for the final 15 minutes of a play-off tie. The burden of goal-scoring falls on the front three, which is exactly what the prices suggest.
Who will be England’s top scorer at the World Cup 2026?
2. Bellingham, Rice and Mainoo will cover the whole midfield. It is hard to overstate the work rate of that trio. Declan Rice is excellent at cleaning up and in one-on-one duels, Kobbie Mainoo is in the top five for ground covered in the Premier League, and Bellingham is arguably the best player in the world between the lines.
3. The defence is full of versatile players. The German built his back line on a simple principle: the more positions you can cover, the more useful you are to me.
Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa are comfortable in a back three, Djed Spence plays on both flanks, while Reece James and John Stones can step into the holding midfield role. Sorry, Trent, but four games in midfield is not enough.
4. Goalkeeper remains a problem. The only real talent from the British goalkeeping school is going to the World Cup as third choice. James Trafford has barely played for Manchester City and is not ready to be number one.
Even so, England’s zero in the goals conceded column in qualifying has so far allowed Jordan Pickford to be priced as a contender for the Golden Glove. The Everton goalkeeper is sixth in the market at
15/2
So, however much fans criticise Tuchel and his decisions, England have one of the strongest squads on paper. The problems lie elsewhere.
England, the great unknown: chances at the 2026 World Cup
Judging a national team’s potential from qualifying is a thankless task. Blowing away Latvia, Andorra and Serbia is one thing, and even Lee Carsley could have handled that. Playing against the elite is something else entirely. In essence, Tuchel’s real debut as England manager is still to come.
There will be no problems in the group, of course. England are in Group L with Croatia, Ghana and Panama. The games against the latter two will not be much different from qualifying matches. First place will be contested by England and Croatia, and bookmakers are gradually pushing up the price on a Three Lions win. Tuchel is unlikely to make a decision that backfires, but anything can happen.
Who will win Group L?
Given that England’s performances against elite teams remain a blind spot, success will depend on too many factors: their group position, the opponent and their calibre, injuries and rotation. Still, the team could get through one or two play off rounds on player quality and Kane’s goal-scoring instinct. Now it is up to Tuchel to make it all work.
We have not seen a single friendly against a top side, and Tuchel’s tactical ideas for major matches may work well at club level rather than in international football, where tired players coming off a long season have only a few weeks for proper preparation.
England may have their flaws, but there could still be an iron core beneath the surface. Betting on this team, though, is an equation full of unknowns.
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