Three teams who will surprise in the 2026 World Cup knockout stage

All the big names made it through the group stage at the World Cup without any major issues, but the tournament has not been short of surprises: Türkiye flopped when they had been expected to fight for a place deep in the knockout stage, while Germany were knocked out by Paraguay in the round of 32. All the bookmakers’ favourites, however, are still in the running.

Who will win the 2026 World Cup?

We have picked out three teams who could spring a surprise at this World Cup and go further than some of the established elite.

Continuity is working in Morocco’s favour

Walid Regragui’s dismissal appeared to put a line through Morocco’s chances at the tournament, but the federation already had the ideal candidate in mind. Mohamed Ouahbi won the U20 World Cup with Morocco in 2025 and will now try to pull off something similar in America.

Results of Morocco at World Cups in the 21st century

The legendary 2022 World Cup remains the benchmark for this team, and Ouahbi has handled the task superbly so far: Morocco went unbeaten in the group stage and then beat the Netherlands in the round of 32, despite facing a side backed by a mathematical algorithm that had predicted the last three World Cup winners.

Their style of play has also changed. Regragui’s ideas are still at the core, but Ouahbi has added several elements that have helped make Morocco the leading outsiders at the 2026 World Cup:

1. The first signs of a press. Morocco’s success at the 2022 World Cup was built largely on Yassine Bounou and their ability to suffer. You could call it parking the bus, although low block sounds rather more elegant. Ouahbi has pushed the defensive line higher and, at times, has his side pressing even in the opposition half.

There is a downside to that approach: Bounou is no longer quite the same goalkeeper, while a higher defensive line naturally brings more risk. That explains the rise in goals conceded. Even Haiti managed to score twice against Morocco. Both teams to score looks a perfectly reasonable angle in their upcoming games, and in the match against Canada it is available at 21/20

2. Hybrid systems and wide triangles. Ouahbi switches between 4-3-3 and 3-4-3 during matches, but the key wide players, Achraf Hakimi and Noussair Mazraoui, remain central to everything Morocco do. It feels as though they have even more freedom now, and at certain points Morocco operate in a 3-2-5 shape.

3. Perfect integration of talent. The situation is reminiscent of Spain, where Luis de la Fuente brought the younger generation into the senior set-up. Ouahbi knows the youngsters inside out, and we are seeing Ayyoub Bouaddi, Ismael Saibari and Neil El Aynaoui shine. Saibari has already moved to Bayern Munich, while transfers for Ayyoub and Neil look like a matter of time.

The naturalisation of Brahim Díaz has been an excellent addition. The Real Madrid winger was the top scorer at the 2026 Africa Cup of Nations with five goals, although at the 2026 World Cup he has so far been limited to two assists. Now looks like the right time for him to unleash that strike: one missed chance and 0.97 xG suggest Díaz is worth following in the goalscorer markets soon.

The game against Canada should not be a major problem for the Atlas Lions, but a potential quarter final against France looks far more intriguing.

Whether Morocco can avenge the 0:2 semi final defeat in Qatar is far from certain, given France’s form, but this team is certainly capable of reaching the quarter-finals.

Quinto partido, Swiss style

Mexico’s famous fifth game curse also seems to apply to European teams: Switzerland have fallen at the first knockout hurdle four times in the 21st century.

Results of Switzerland at World Cups in the 21st century

In recent years, Switzerland have consistently progressed from the group stage at World Cups and European Championships, but they have stumbled in less than obvious situations: penalty shootout defeats in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 and Euro 2021, plus a painful 0:1 loss to Sweden in the round of 16 at the 2018 World Cup, when Switzerland lacked cutting edge and Sweden scored with only their second shot on target.

At the 2026 World Cup, Switzerland again reached the knockout stage with confidence and drew a winnable tie against Algeria, who had the weakest goalkeepers of the group stage. Luca Zidane posted a save rate of just 60%, while Oussama Benbot recorded none at all.

Switzerland vs Algeria, June 3

The fifth game curse will probably be broken, but can Switzerland make noise beyond that? Yes, and here is why:

A rock-solid midfield. Granit Xhaka and Remo Freuler are one of the best midfield pairings among national teams, giving Switzerland a huge amount of work rate and structure. At the 2026 World Cup, Manzambi has also emerged in the side, with a role that resembles Federico Valverde’s in terms of function.

Murat Yakin deliberately gives up the flanks, drawing opponents into central areas and taking the sting out of games. It does not always work for the full 90 minutes, but the opening half tends to belong to a low-scoring Switzerland side. Under 1.5 goals in the first half landed steadily in the group stage, so that market is worth considering. Against Algeria, the price is a modest 7/20

Hybrid roles and the half-spaces. Without the ball, Switzerland line up in a 5-4-1. In attack, they can shift into either a 3-4-3 or a 3-1-4, with the focus on midfielders making runs between the lines rather than relying on crosses. Switzerland average only 2.7 successful crosses into the box per game, with an accuracy rate of 12.5%, which is lower than Haiti at 20.5% and Curaçao at 34.5%.

Their 10 corners against Qatar and seven against Bosnia were the product of pressure and even desperation rather than a clear system. Against more evenly matched opponents, when Switzerland play their usual football consistently, that number drops sharply. They had only two corners against Canada, for example.

Under 5.5 corners at 11/20 looks interesting against Algeria, but if Switzerland go through, backing Unders on corner totals becomes a must.

The bookmakers are right not to believe in Switzerland winning the World Cup, given potential matches against Colombia and Argentina in the next rounds. Even so, Switzerland are more than capable of springing a surprise: Colombia could struggle to find their rhythm against such a well-drilled opponent.

Colombia are sending the old guard into battle

We cross the ocean and turn to Colombia. The national team performed well in Russia and Brazil, but missed the World Cup in Qatar.

Results of Colombia at World Cups in the 21st century

Colombia arrived at the tournament in America with a golden but ageing squad, with an average age of 29.7. Experience and the coach’s tactical decisions have done the job: Colombia won their group for the third World Cup in a row.

Néstor Lorenzo builds Colombia’s game on two pillars: freeing Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez from defensive duties, and overloading the flanks. Díaz is the obvious one. The Colombian has been tearing opponents apart at Bayern Munich, with 26 goals and 19 assists in the 2025/26 season, and he has already scored at the World Cup. Expect more of the same in the knockout stage.

Colombia vs Ghana, June 5

James Rodríguez’s renaissance is a separate story. The best player at the 2014 World Cup, who barely played over the past two years, is shining at another tournament, averaging 3.3 key passes, creating two chances and recording 87% passing accuracy in the group stage.

That link-up allows Lorenzo to use a simple but effective move: overload the right flank by bringing Daniel Muñoz forward and shifting James across, then have him switch the ball left to Díaz, leaving him isolated one-on-one.

As long as the Díaz and Rodríguez magic works, Colombia are in the game. A potential quarter final against Argentina should not scare them either. Los Cafeteros did not lose to Argentina in World Cup qualifying, while in the 2024 Copa America final they conceded in the 112th minute to Lautaro Martínez, who has looked poor at this tournament.

The downside: which of the elite sides could be upset?

In contrast to the lively teams who could surprise in a positive way, the group stage has also made it clear which big names could disappoint their supporters.

We will add two European teams to the list, and it is best not to expect too much from either of them:

Portugal. An ageing Cristiano Ronaldo, a lack of proper replacements and a coach with a poor record, who won nothing with Belgium’s best ever squad across six years in charge. And this team are priced as fifth favourites at 14/1 Seriously?

Vitinha and Rúben Neves are posting 100% pass accuracy without playing a single forward pass, while Portugal’s only group win came against Uzbekistan. There are not many reasons for the supporters to be cheerful.

Portugal have never been known for growing into tournaments and improving their level as they go, while Cristiano Ronaldo’s struggles alongside a shining Lionel Messi will end before the quarter-finals. With this football, there is no way forward.

Spain. Here, it makes sense to start from expectations. Spain were the main pre-tournament contenders to win the World Cup. The stronger the belief in their triumph was, the less convincing they have looked so far: a weak group stage and underwhelming performances from their leaders mean La Roja are now third in the betting at 8/1

There are still no clear signs of a sharp improvement in the knockout stage. France could potentially await in the semi-finals, Lamine Yamal has not impressed, and Mikel Oyarzabal is producing one good game for every five average ones. Spain could become the biggest upset of the tournament simply because they fail to reach the final.

Read also: