Odds Overview
Ajax are clear favourites: Ajax to win is priced at 1.35, while the draw is rated at 5.20 and Sion to win at 7.60. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 looks notably more likely than Under 2.5 goals at 2.80. In the handicap market, Sion (+1.5) at 1.80 is priced slightly lower than Ajax (-1.5) at 1.95.
Why Ajax Are Favourites
Ajax to win is priced at 1.35, the draw at 5.20 and Sion to win at 7.60. The arguments behind that assessment are:
- Aggregate advantage. The hosts won the first leg 4:2 and had a free weekend from league action to prepare for the return match.
- Tournament pressure on the opposition. Sion need to make up a two-goal deficit, which forces the club to take risks away from home.
- Overall home scoring output. Ajax have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up Ajax
Ajax are moving confidently through the UEFA Conference League — first they thrashed Vojvodina (4:1, 4:1), then got past Shelbourne (3:1, 2:2) and beat Sion in the first play-off match (4:2). The Amsterdam side have also started the Dutch league season reasonably well — they beat Volendam (3:1) and drew with Heerenveen (2:2).
Key numbers:
- Ajax have scored at least two goals in 8 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Ajax's opponents have not scored more than two goals in their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Ajax are unbeaten in 12 consecutive matches.
Probable Ajax line-up (4-3-3): Marc-Andre ter Stegen — Anton Gaaei, Aaron Bouwman, Youri Baas, Caio Henrique — Davy Klaassen, Youri Regeer, Julian Brandt — Steven Berghuis, Marcos Leonardo, Oscar Gloukh.
Absentees: Daley Blind (doubtful).
Form and Line-up Sion
Sion's route through the UEFA Conference League has not been straightforward — the Swiss side got past BATE (1:1, 4:0) and then edged past Noah with difficulty (2:2, 2:1). In the first match against Ajax, Sion could not cope, conceding four goals with 3.53 xGA. In the Swiss league, the visitors have made a mixed start — two wins and a 2:4 defeat to Young Boys.
Key numbers:
- Sion have scored at least two goals in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 8 matches in a row.
- Fewer than 4 yellow cards were shown in 7 of the previous 9 meetings.
Probable Sion line-up (4-2-3-1): Anthony Racioppi — Numa Lavanchy, Noe Sow, Jan Kronig, Nias Hefti — Ali Kabacalman, Baltazar — Ilyas Chouaref, Winsley Boteli, Franck Surdez — Rilind Nivokazi.
Absentees: Kreshnik Hajrizi (doubtful).
Team Chances
Ajax to win is offered at 1.35; the no-margin price is 1.44, with a probability of 69.6%. The draw is priced at 5.20, with a no-margin price of 5.54 and an 18.1% probability, while Sion to win is 7.60, 8.09 and 12.4% respectively.
| Result | Average odds | Average no-margin odds | No-margin probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax to win | 1.35 | 1.44 | 69.6% |
| Draw | 5.20 | 5.54 | 18.1% |
| Sion to win | 7.60 | 8.09 | 12.4% |
Totals Prediction
On the 2.5 line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.38 is significantly more appealing than Under 2.5 goals at 2.80. At the 3.5 mark, the prices are closer: Under 3.5 goals is 1.80, Over 3.5 goals is 1.95.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.80 | 1.38 |
| 3.5 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Handicap Prediction
Ajax (-1.5) is priced at 1.95, while Sion (+1.5) is 1.80. On the 1-goal line, Ajax (-1) is available at 1.50, while Sion (+1) is 2.40. With a zero handicap, Ajax (0) at 1.10 is notably lower than Sion (0) at 5.30.
| Hosts | Handicap | Visitors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.95 | -1.5 | — |
| — | 1.5 | 1.80 |
| 1.50 | -1 | — |
| — | 1 | 2.40 |
| 1.10 | 0 | 5.30 |
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Both teams to score — Yes at 1.60 is priced lower than Both teams to score — No at 2.25, meaning the option with goals for both teams looks more likely.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.60 |
| No | 2.25 |
Double Chance Prediction
The lowest odds are on 1X at 1.07, followed by 12 at 1.14. X2 at 3.05 is rated as significantly less likely.
| 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|
7/100
|
7/50
|
41/20
|
Team Total Prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Ajax — 2.5 goals, Sion — 1 goal.
Ajax Team Total
Ajax: Under 2 goals at 2.35 is priced higher than Over 2 goals at 1.52. On the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals is 1.70 and Over 2.5 goals is 2.03. At the 3 mark, Under 3 goals at 1.38 is notably lower than Over 3 goals at 2.80.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.35 | 2 | 1.52 |
| 1.70 | 2.5 | 2.03 |
| 1.38 | 3 | 2.80 |
Sion Team Total
Sion: Under 0.5 goals at 2.40 is priced higher than Over 0.5 goals at 1.50. On the 1-goal line, Under 1 goal is offered at 1.60 and Over 1 goal at 2.20. At the 1.5 mark, Under 1.5 goals at 1.27 is significantly lower than Over 1.5 goals at 3.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.60 | 1 | 2.20 |
| 1.27 | 1.5 | 3.40 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Julian Weinberger (Austria)
Matches – 5 (International fixtures, 2025–2026);
Average fouls per match – 26;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) – 3.8;
Matches with red cards – 0 of 5;
Matches with penalties – 1 of 5.
