Odds overview
Atlético Madrid are favourites: an away win is available at 1.80, compared with 3.80 for the draw and 4.40 for a Deportivo Alavés win. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 is marginally favoured over Under 2.5 at 1.95. At a handicap of 0, Atlético Madrid at 1.33 are a much stronger favourite than Deportivo Alavés at 3.05.
Why Atlético Madrid are favourites
Atlético Madrid go into this away match as favourites: an away win is quoted at 1.80, while a Deportivo Alavés win is available at 4.40 and the draw at 3.80.
- Atlético Madrid average 2.29 goals per league match — the third-highest figure in La Liga.
- Deportivo Alavés have not beaten Atlético Madrid for two years, recording two draws and two defeats.
- Atlético Madrid have won three straight La Liga matches, including a 2:1 victory over Real Madrid.
Form and Line-up Deportivo Alavés
In their final match before the international break, Deportivo Alavés held Athletic Bilbao to a 0:0 draw away from home, with goalkeeper Antonio Sivera saving a penalty. It was a third consecutive match without a win for Deportivo Alavés, who had previously won three times and drawn 1:1 with Rayo Vallecano. The Basque side are sixth in the table with 11 points and a goal difference of 11:6.
- Deportivo Alavés have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- Under 3.5 goals have been scored in 9 of Deportivo Alavés' last 10 La Liga matches.
- Opponents have taken fewer than 11.5 shots in 8 of Deportivo Alavés' last 10 La Liga home matches.
Probable line-up (5-3-2): Antonio Sivera, Ángel Pérez, Nahuel Tenaglia, Nicolás Valentini, Jonny Otto, Abde Rebbach, Pablo Ibáñez, Antonio Blanco, Denis Suárez, Toni Martínez, Lucas Boyé.
Absentees: Mikel Rodriguez, Facundo Garcés, Ville Koski (all injured).
Form and Line-up Atlético Madrid
Atlético Madrid have taken 16 points from 7 matches, dropping points only against Villarreal (2:2) and Athletic Bilbao (0:3). Diego Simeone's side won every other match. In the latest round, Atlético Madrid beat Real Madrid 2:1 at home, turning the match in their favour in the second half after an opposition player was sent off and they converted a penalty. They also began their UEFA Champions League campaign with a 1:2 defeat to Liverpool.
- Over 2.5 goals have been scored in 8 of Atlético Madrid's last 10 La Liga away matches.
- Atlético Madrid have had more than 3.5 shots on target in all of their last 10 La Liga matches.
- Atlético Madrid have been caught offside fewer than 2.5 times in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable line-up (3-4-2-1): Jan Oblak, Marc Pubill, Cristian Gabriel Romero, Robin Le Normand, Giuliano Simeone, Marcos Llorente, Johnny Cardoso, David Hancko, Lee Kang-in, Álex Baena, Jonathan David.
Absentees: Alexander Sørloth (injured).
Teams' chances
For an Atlético Madrid win, the average odds are 1.80, the fair odds are 1.88 and the probability is 53.1%. The corresponding figures are 3.80, 3.97 and 25.2% for the draw, and 4.40, 4.60 and 21.7% for a Deportivo Alavés win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés win | 4.40 | 4.60 | 21.7% |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.97 | 25.2% |
| Atlético Madrid win | 1.80 | 1.88 | 53.1% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.85, compared with 1.95 for Under 2.5. At the 3.5-goal line, Under is 1.37 and Over is 2.85.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| 3.5 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
Handicap prediction
At the -1.5 handicap line, Deportivo Alavés are 8.50 and Atlético Madrid are 3.05; at the +1.5 line, they are 1.33 and 1.04 respectively. At the -1 line, the odds are 7.20 and 2.45 respectively; at the +1 line, 1.55 and 1.05; and at the 0 line, 3.05 and 1.33.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 8.50 | -1.5 | 3.05 |
| 1.33 | 1.5 | 1.04 |
| 7.20 | -1 | 2.45 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 1.05 |
| 3.05 | 0 | 1.33 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.78, while No is 1.98; Yes is the favourite.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.78 |
| No | 1.98 |
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: Deportivo Alavés — 1 goal; Atlético Madrid — 1.5 goals.
Deportivo Alavés team total goals
For Deportivo Alavés' team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.50, compared with 2.50 for Under 0.5. At the 1-goal line, Under is available at 1.67 and Over at 2.13; at the 1.5-goal line, the respective odds are 1.32 and 3.10.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | 0.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.67 | 1 | 2.13 |
| 1.32 | 1.5 | 3.10 |
Atlético Madrid team total goals
For Atlético Madrid's team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.14, compared with 4.60 for Under 0.5; Over 1 goal is 1.25, compared with 3.50 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under and Over are close at 1.90 and 1.85 respectively; at the 2-goal line, Under is 1.40 and Over is 2.70.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.60 | 0.5 | 1.14 |
| 3.50 | 1 | 1.25 |
| 1.90 | 1.5 | 1.85 |
| 1.40 | 2 | 2.70 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Alejandro Quintero (Spain)
Matches — 21 (La Liga, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 27;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 4.8;
Matches with a red card — 8 of 21;
Matches with a penalty — 8 of 21.
