Odds overview
Deportivo Alavés are favourites: they are around 1.75 to win, with the draw at 3.65 and a Málaga win at 4.90. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals is 1.77, compared with 2.05 for Over 2.5 goals. On the handicap line of 0, Deportivo Alavés (0) are 1.28, while Málaga (0) are around 3.35.
Why Deportivo Alavés are favourites
A Deportivo Alavés win is available at 1.75, the draw is quoted at 3.65, and a Málaga win is offered at 4.90.
- Home attack: Deportivo Alavés have averaged two goals per game across five home matches in this La Liga season.
- Away struggles: Málaga have won none of their last ten away matches, have consistently had fewer shot attempts than their opponents and have conceded an average of two goals per match.
- Deportivo Alavés have lost to Málaga only once in their last eight meetings.
Form and Line-up Deportivo Alavés
Quique Sánchez Flores's side lost 1:2 to Celta in the previous round. Hugo Novoa's late goal brought the contest back to life, and Deportivo Alavés created two chances, but their opponents held on. It was a fourth defeat in five league matches for Deportivo Alavés, who also drew 0:0 with Athletic Bilbao during that run.
- Deportivo Alavés have conceded fewer than 2.5 goals in all 5 of their last 5 La Liga home matches.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 4 of Deportivo Alavés's last 5 home league matches.
- Fewer than 2.5 first-half goals have been scored in Deportivo Alavés's last 5 home matches.
Probable Deportivo Alavés line-up (5-3-2): Antonio Sivera, Abde Rebbach, Jonny Otto, Nicolás Valentini, Ville Koski, Nahuel Tenaglia, Carles Aleñá, Antonio Blanco, Pablo Ibáñez, Lucas Boyé, Toni Martínez.
Absentees: Mikel Rodriguez (injury), Facundo Garcés (suspension).
Form and Line-up Málaga
Juan Funes's Málaga lost 2:5 at home to Real Sociedad in Matchday 9, scoring both their goals after falling 0:2 behind. The Anchovies have gone nine La Liga matches without a win and sit bottom of the table with four points, having scored just six goals.
- Over 24.5 fouls has landed in 8 of Málaga's last 10 La Liga away matches.
- Málaga have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 9 of their last 10 away league matches.
- Málaga have had fewer than 3.5 shots on target in 9 of their last 10 La Liga away matches.
Probable Málaga line-up (4-2-2): Alfonso Herrero, Rafael Garrido, Fernando Calero, Ángel Recio, José Salinas, David Larrubia, Izan Merino, Carlos Dotor, Pablo Martinez, Adrián Niño, Chupe.
Absentees: Julen Lobete and Aarón Ochoa (both injured); Juan Cruz and Diego Murillo (both doubtful).
The teams' chances
Deportivo Alavés to win: average odds of 1.75, fair odds of 1.84 and a probability of 54.4%. The draw is available at 3.65, with fair odds of 3.83 and a probability of 26.1%. Málaga to win: 4.90, fair odds of 5.14 and a probability of 19.4%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés to win | 1.75 | 1.84 | 54.4% |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.83 | 26.1% |
| Málaga to win | 4.90 | 5.14 | 19.4% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Under 2.5 is 1.77 and Over 2.5 is 2.05, so the market slightly favours fewer goals. The gap is wider at 3.5: Under 3.5 is 1.30 and Over 3.5 is 3.30.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.77 | 2.05 |
| 3.5 | 1.30 | 3.30 |
Handicap prediction
Deportivo Alavés (-1.5) are offered at 2.95, while Málaga (+1.5) are 1.35. At the 1-goal line, Deportivo Alavés (-1) are 2.40 and Málaga (+1) are 1.58. On the zero handicap, Deportivo Alavés (0) at 1.28 are considerably shorter than Málaga (0) at 3.35.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.95 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.35 | |
| 2.40 | -1 | |
| 1 | 1.58 | |
| 1.28 | 0 | 3.35 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — No is 1.80 and considered slightly more likely than Both teams to score — Yes at 1.95; the first option means at least one team will not score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.95 |
| No | 1.80 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
17/100
|
29/100
|
21/20
|
| 888sport |
1/5
|
3/10
|
19/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: Deportivo Alavés — 1.5 goals; Málaga — 0.5 goals.
Deportivo Alavés team goals
For Deportivo Alavés team goals, Under 0.5 is 4.40 and Over 0.5 is 1.16; at the 1-goal line, the respective odds are 3.15 and 1.30. The odds are nearly equal at 1.5: Under 1.5 is 1.82 and Over 1.5 is 1.92. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is 1.37 and Over 2 is 2.85.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 4.40 | 0.5 | 1.16 |
| 3.15 | 1 | 1.30 |
| 1.82 | 1.5 | 1.92 |
| 1.37 | 2 | 2.85 |
Málaga team goals
For Málaga team goals, Under 0.5 is 2.18 and Over 0.5 is 1.65. At the 1-goal line, Under 1 is 1.48 against 2.55 for Over 1; at 1.5, Under 1.5 is 1.22 and Over 1.5 is 3.85.
| Under | Team goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.18 | 0.5 | 1.65 |
| 1.48 | 1 | 2.55 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.85 |
