Odds overview
In the 1X2 market, Alaves are favourites: a home win is 2.30, compared with 3.05 for a draw and 3.55 for an away win. In the main total, Under 2.5 goals at 1.55 is clearly favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.50. For the 0 handicap, Alaves Draw No Bet is 1.58, while Osasuna Draw No Bet is 2.40.
Why Alaves are favourites
An Alaves win is available at 2.30, the draw at 3.05 and an Osasuna win at 3.55. The arguments for this assessment are:
Alaves are effective in attack at home and have scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 La Liga home matches.
Osasuna often make mistakes away from home and have conceded at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 league away matches.
Alaves are reliable in first halves at home: they have kept a clean sheet before half-time in eight consecutive La Liga matches.
Form and Line-up Alaves
Alaves have started the season well at Mendizorrotza, recording 3:0 wins over Getafe and 1:0 wins over Villarreal. Their only away match ended in a 1:1 draw, meaning the Basque side have conceded an average of just 0.33 goals per game at the start of the campaign.
Key numbers:
Alaves are unbeaten in seven consecutive matches.
Under 2.5 goals landed in 5 of their previous 7 matches.
Alaves scored first in 5 of their last 6 matches.
Probable Alaves line-up (5-3-2): Antonio Sivera — Angel Perez, Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Jonny Otto, Abde Rebbach — Pablo Ibanez, Antonio Blanco, Mikel Rodriguez — Mariano Diaz, Lucas Boye.
Absentees: Toni Martinez (injury).
Form and Line-up Osasuna
Osasuna are also unbeaten at the start of the campaign: they drew with Levante (0:0), won away to Osasuna (2:1) and overcame Getafe (1:0) thanks to an Ante Budimir penalty in the final seconds of the first half.
Key numbers:
- They conceded first in 5 of their previous 7 matches.
Fewer than 4 yellow cards were shown in 8 of their last 10 matches.
Fewer than 10 corners were taken in 8 of their previous 9 matches.
Probable Osasuna line-up (4-2-3-1): Sergio Herrera — Inigo Arguibide, Alejandro Catena, Enzo Boyomo, Abel Bretones — Jon Moncayola, Iker Munoz — Ruben Garcia, Lucas Torro, Moi Gomez — Ante Budimir.
Absentees: Aimar Oroz, Jorge Herrando (both injured), Valentin Rosier (doubtful).
Team chances
A home win at 2.30 has fair odds of 2.40 and a probability of 41.6%, higher than the draw — 3.05, 3.19 and 31.4%. An away win ranks third, with odds of 3.55, fair odds of 3.71 and a probability of 27.0%.
Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
Alaves win | 2.30 | 2.40 | 41.6% |
Draw | 3.05 | 3.19 | 31.4% |
Osasuna win | 3.55 | 3.71 | 27.0% |
Total goals prediction
For the 2.5 line, Under 2.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Over 2.5 goals at 2.50. For the 2-goal total, the odds are almost identical: Under 2 at 1.90 and Over 2 at 1.85. For the 3.5 line, the market clearly favours Under 3.5 goals at 1.15, while Over 3.5 goals is available at 4.50.
Line | Under | Over |
2.5 | 1.55 | 2.50 |
2 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
3.5 | 1.15 | 4.50 |
Handicap prediction
Alaves (-1.5) at 4.70 looks more likely than Osasuna (-1.5) at 7.60. For the 1.5 line, Alaves (+1.5) at 1.05 is marginally favoured over Osasuna (+1.5) at 1.13; similarly, for the 1 line it is 1.06 versus 1.22. In the 0 handicap, Alaves Draw No Bet at 1.58 is markedly shorter than Osasuna Draw No Bet at 2.40.
Home | Handicap | Away |
4.70 | -1.5 | 7.60 |
1.05 | 1.5 | 1.13 |
3.85 | -1 | 6.60 |
1.06 | 1 | 1.22 |
1.58 | 0 | 2.40 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score - No at 1.75 is favoured over Both teams to score - Yes at 2.00: the market expects at least one team not to score.
Both teams to score | Odds |
Yes | 2.00 |
No | 1.75 |
Double chance prediction
The most likely double chance is 1X at 1.30. The 12 bet is available at 1.38 and X2 at 1.62, meaning the option without an Alaves win is rated below the others.
1X | 12 | X2 |
1.30 | 1.38 | 1.62 |
Team total prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team totals for this match: Alaves — 1 goal, Osasuna — 0.5 goals.
Alaves team total
Alaves team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.32 is clearly favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 3.10. For the 1-goal line, Over 1 at 1.75 is shorter than Under 1 at 2.00, while for the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 goals is favoured at 1.45 against 2.65 for Over 1.5 goals.
Under | Team total | Over |
3.10 | 0.5 | 1.32 |
2.00 | 1 | 1.75 |
1.45 | 1.5 | 2.65 |
Osasuna team total
Osasuna team total: Over 0.5 goals at 1.55 is favoured over Under 0.5 goals at 2.40. For the 1-goal line, Under 1 at 1.55 is shorter, while Over 1 is 2.40; for the 1.5 line, Under 1.5 goals at 1.25 is considerably more likely than Over 1.5 goals at 3.60.
Under | Team total | Over |
2.40 | 0.5 | 1.55 |
1.55 | 1 | 2.40 |
1.25 | 1.5 | 3.60 |
