Odds overview
Albania to win at 1.91 is favoured over the draw at 3.30 and Finland to win at 4.10. In the main totals market, Under 2.5 goals is available at around 1.60, compared with 2.22 for Over 2.5 goals. Albania Draw No Bet at 1.40 has considerably shorter odds than Finland Draw No Bet at 2.73.
Why Albania are favourites
Albania are the bookmakers' favourites: a home win is offered at 1.91, the draw at 3.30 and a Finland win at 4.10.
- Albania have avoided defeat in seven of their last ten competitive matches.
- Finland have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in eight of their last ten UEFA Nations League matches.
- Although Albania lost to Finland in early October (1:2), they played with ten men from the 22nd minute and created more chances (1.15 xG versus 0.56).
Form and Line-up Albania
Albania go into the next round on the back of a win: they beat San Marino 2:1 on 6 October 2026. Earlier in the same autumn run, Albania beat San Marino away (3:0) but lost to Finland (1:2). They also beat Belarus (2:0) in their opening UEFA Nations League match. With nine points, Albania sit comfortably top of League C, with an 8:3 goal difference.
- Albania's opponents have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in each of their last 10 competitive matches.
- There have been fewer than 3.5 goals in each of Albania's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Mario Dajsinani, Elseid Hysaj, Ardian Ismajli, Berat Djimsiti, Mario Mitaj, Ulian Shehu, Kristjan Asllani, Stavros Pilios, Ernest Muci, Rey Manaj, Arber Hoxha.
Absentees: Marash Kumbulla, Thomas Strakosha, Armando Broja (all doubtful).
Form and Line-up Finland
Finland played their most recent competitive match on 6 October 2026 — a 0:1 away defeat to Belarus — having beaten Albania (2:1) earlier, on 3 October. They also thrashed San Marino (7:0) and drew 0:0 with Belarus.
- Finland have scored fewer than 2.5 goals in nine of their last 10 competitive matches.
- The teams have scored fewer than 3.5 goals combined in eight of Finland's last 10 UEFA Nations League matches.
Probable line-up (4-3-3): Lukáš Hrádecký, Ryan Mahuta, Ville Koski, Tony Miettinen, Juho Lähteenmäki, Adam Markhiev, Kaan Kairinen, Leo Walta, Adrian Svanbäck, Topi Keskinen, Onni Valakari.
The teams' chances
The average odds for Albania to win are 1.91, with fair odds of 2.04 and a probability of 48.9%. The corresponding figures are 3.30, 3.53 and 28.3% for the draw, and 4.10, 4.39 and 22.8% for Finland to win.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Albania win | 1.91 | 2.04 | 48.9% |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.53 | 28.3% |
| Finland win | 4.10 | 4.39 | 22.8% |
Total goals betting
Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.60 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.22. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 goals is offered at 2.09 and Over 2 goals at 1.68. At 3.5 goals, the odds are 1.20 for Under 3.5 and 3.95 for Over 3.5.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.60 | 2.22 |
| 2 | 2.09 | 1.68 |
| 3.5 | 1.20 | 3.95 |
Handicap betting
Albania (-1) are available at 2.67, while Finland (-1) are at 1.42. For the zero handicap, Albania (0) are at 1.40 and Finland (0) at 2.73.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | -1 | 1.42 |
| 1.40 | 0 | 2.73 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
11/50
|
33/100
|
4/5
|
| William Hill |
11/50
|
33/100
|
17/20
|
| LeoVegas |
1/4
|
33/100
|
4/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team goals betting
The bookmakers have set the following team-goal totals for this match: Albania — 1.5 goals; Finland — 0.5 goals.
Albania team goals
For Albania, Under 0.5 goals is at 3.60 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.24. At the 1-goal line, the odds are 1.44 for Under 1 and 2.63 for Over 1; at 1.5 goals, they are 1.63 and 2.17 respectively. At the 2-goal line, Under 2 is available at 1.30 and Over 2 at 3.27.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 0.5 | 1.24 |
| 1.44 | 1 | 2.63 |
| 1.63 | 1.5 | 2.17 |
| 1.30 | 2 | 3.27 |
Finland team goals
For Finland, Under 0.5 goals is at 2.20 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.61. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.22 and Over 1.5 at 3.75. At 2.5 goals, the odds are 1.03 for Under 2.5 and 7.90 for Over 2.5.
| Under | Team goals total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 0.5 | 1.61 |
| 1.22 | 1.5 | 3.75 |
| 1.03 | 2.5 | 7.90 |
Who Will Referee the Match
João Pinheiro (Portugal)
Matches — 21 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 21;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.4;
Matches with a red card — 5 out of 21;
Matches with a penalty — 6 out of 21.
