Betting Tip
The first meeting in this tie in Tiraspol ended in a drab 0:0 draw, but it offered a clear sense of the game plans. The more modest NK Aluminij set up in a deep defence from the outset, giving up on counter-attacking play in order to preserve an acceptable scoreline. The Slovenian club deliberately ceded possession and focused on breaking up the opposition's positional attacks. In the second leg at Stadion Ljudski vrt in Maribor, the home coaching staff are unlikely to make any sharp change in approach, because any space left open against a counter-attacking opponent could prove fatal.
Moldovan side FC Sheriff Tiraspol had total territorial dominance in the home game, which reached two-thirds after the break, but they still could not break down NK Aluminij's defensive redoubts. The Tiraspol side had 24 shots and made active use of the flanks, but poor finishing let them down (only five efforts on target), as did a lack of creativity in the final phase of build-up. Even so, between their European matches, the yellow-and-blacks played an impressive domestic league game, beating FC Zimbru Chisinau 4:2. That victory helped the Tiraspol side regain confidence in their attacking strength.
The bookmakers' prices for normal time in the second leg look fairly even, but in terms of qualification for the next round, the more experienced Moldovan club are still considered the favourites. Their odds are roughly half as high. The Slovenians will try to play a little more boldly at home, relying on set pieces and the backing of the stands. At the same time, the visitors' European background obliges them to operate from a position of strength and take the initiative from the first minutes, so that they can settle all questions before any possible lottery begins.
The cautious nature of the first game and the high price of a mistake will force the teams to pay maximum attention to protecting their own goal. We are most likely in for another tight match with plenty of tactical battling in midfield, where one precise strike will decide everything. Against that backdrop, a bet on moderate scoring looks the logical choice.